相关论文: Predictive Analysis of Chikungunya

We conducted a prospective analysis of incident dementia and its association with 65 sociodemographic, early-life, economic, health and behavioral, social, and genetic risk factors in a sample of 7,908 adults over the age of 50 from the…

Based on approximately 90,000 confirmed dengue cases reported in Recife - a major city in northeastern Brazil - between 2015 and 2024, we conducted a neighborhood-level spatial analysis. Socioeconomic and demographic indicators from the…

We study the accuracy of forecasts in the diffusion index forecast model with possibly weak loadings. The default option to construct forecasts is to estimate the factors through principal component analysis (PCA) on the available predictor…

The advents of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven models marks a paradigm shift in risk management strategies for meteorological hazards. This study specifically employs tropical cyclones (TCs) as a focal example. We engineer a…

As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, increasing numbers of surveillance sites have been established which allows countries to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, e.g. at sub-national levels. Currently, the epidemic…

As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, increasing numbers of surveillance sites have been established which allows countries to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, e.g. at sub-national level. However, the epidemic models…

In this work, we present an approach called Disease Informed Neural Networks (DINNs) that can be employed to effectively predict the spread of infectious diseases. This approach builds on a successful physics informed neural network…

When an infection spreads in a community, an individual's probability of becoming infected depends on both her susceptibility and exposure to the contagion through contact with others. While one often has knowledge regarding an individual's…

This study incorporates mathematical analysis, focusing on developing theories and conducting numerical simulations of Influenza virus transmission using real-world data. The terms in the equations introduce parameters which are determined…

Coronary Heart Disease affects millions of people worldwide and is a well-studied area of healthcare. There are many viable and accurate methods for the diagnosis and prediction of heart disease, but they have limiting points such as…

Recently, we proposed an state model (compartment model) to describe the progression of a chronic disease with an pre-clinical (undiagnosed) state before clinical diagnosis. It is an open question, if a sequence of cross-sectional studies…

Dengue is a major threat to public health in Brazil, the world's sixth biggest country by population, with over 1.5 million cases recorded in 2019 alone. Official data on dengue case counts is delivered incrementally and, for many reasons,…

Stochastic compartmental models are prevalent tools for describing disease spread, but inference under these models is challenging for many types of surveillance data when the marginal likelihood function becomes intractable due to missing…

Lightning plays a crucial role in the Earth's climate system, yet existing parameterizations for use in forecasting and earth system models show room for improvement in capturing spatial and temporal variations in its frequency. This study…

Over the past year, data-driven global weather forecasting has emerged as a new alternative to traditional numerical weather prediction. This innovative approach yields forecasts of comparable accuracy at a tiny fraction of computational…

In 2015 the US federal government sponsored a dengue forecasting competition using historical case data from Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Competitors were evaluated on several aspects of out-of-sample forecasts including the…

Climate change is expected to aggravate wildfire activity through the exacerbation of fire weather. Improving our capabilities to anticipate wildfires on a global scale is of uttermost importance for mitigating their negative effects. In…

In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis of extreme temperature patterns using emerging statistical machine learning techniques. Our research focuses on exploring and comparing the effectiveness of various statistical models for…

In the last 150 years, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million. This has caused an increase in the average global temperatures by nearly 0.7 degree centigrade due to the…

Timely and accurate forecasts of seasonal influenza would assist public health decision-makers in planning intervention strategies, efficiently allocating resources, and possibly saving lives. For these reasons, influenza forecasts are…