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In online advertising, it is highly important to predict the probability and the value of a conversion (e.g., a purchase). It not only impacts user experience by showing relevant ads, but also affects ROI of advertisers and revenue of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-26 Hui Gao , Yihan Yang

In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate, that is, the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, such as purchasing goods is fundamental in estimating the value of displaying the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-02-07 Shota Yasui , Gota Morishita , Komei Fujita , Masashi Shibata

Conversion rate prediction is critical to many online applications such as digital display advertising. To capture dynamic data distribution, industrial systems often require retraining models on recent data daily or weekly. However, the…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2023-07-25 Yifan Wang , Peijie Sun , Min Zhang , Qinglin Jia , Jingjie Li , Shaoping Ma

Alleviating the delayed feedback problem is of crucial importance for the conversion rate(CVR) prediction in online advertising. Previous delayed feedback modeling methods using an observation window to balance the trade-off between waiting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-16 Yu Chen , Jiaqi Jin , Hui Zhao , Pengjie Wang , Guojun Liu , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng

The goal of online display advertising is to entice users to "convert" (i.e., take a pre-defined action such as making a purchase) after clicking on the ad. An important measure of the value of an ad is the probability of conversion. The…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-10-25 Abdollah Safari , Rachel MacKay Altman , Thomas M. Loughin

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is one of the most critical tasks for digital display advertising. Commercial systems often require to update models in an online learning manner to catch up with the evolving data distribution. However,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-07-19 Jia-Qi Yang , Xiang Li , Shuguang Han , Tao Zhuang , De-Chuan Zhan , Xiaoyi Zeng , Bin Tong

One of the difficulties of conversion rate (CVR) prediction is that the conversions can delay and take place long after the clicks. The delayed feedback poses a challenge: fresh data are beneficial to continuous training but may not have…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-08-13 Siyu Gu , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Ying Fan , Guorui Zhou , Xiaoqiang Zhu

Predicting conversion rates (CVRs) in display advertising (e.g., predicting the proportion of users who purchase an item (i.e., a conversion) after its corresponding ad is clicked) is important when measuring the effects of ads shown to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-02-02 Yuya Yoshikawa , Yusaku Imai

In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate (CVR), meaning the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, is a fundamental task for estimating the value of displaying an advertisement to a user.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-05-20 Yuta Saito , Gota Morishita , Shota Yasui

Predicting conversion rate (e.g., the probability that a user will purchase an item) is a fundamental problem in machine learning based recommender systems. However, accurate conversion labels are revealed after a long delay, which harms…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2022-11-28 Jia-Qi Yang , De-Chuan Zhan

Conducting experiments with objectives that take significant delays to materialize (e.g. conversions, add-to-cart events, etc.) is challenging. Although the classical "split sample testing" is still valid for the delayed feedback, the…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2022-02-03 Zenan Wang , Carlos Carrion , Xiliang Lin , Fuhua Ji , Yongjun Bao , Weipeng Yan

We consider training a binary classifier under delayed feedback (\emph{DF learning}). For example, in the conversion prediction in online ads, we initially receive negative samples that clicked the ads but did not buy an item; subsequently,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-13 Masahiro Kato , Shota Yasui

Optimizing conversions is crucial in modern online advertising systems, enabling advertisers to deliver relevant products to users and drive business outcomes. However, accurately predicting conversion events remains challenging due to…

Delayed feedback poses a core challenge for online CVR prediction, forcing a trade-off between label accuracy and data freshness. Existing methods address this through delay modeling or sample reweighting, yet neglect how post-click…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-28 Xinyue Zhang , Yuanhao Ding , Xiang Ao

One of the challenges in display advertising is that the distribution of features and click through rate (CTR) can exhibit large shifts over time due to seasonality, changes to ad campaigns and other factors. The predominant strategy to…

In online advertising, once an ad campaign is deployed, the automated bidding system dynamically adjusts the bidding strategy to optimize Cost Per Action (CPA) based on the number of ad conversions. For ads with a long conversion delay,…

The prediction objectives of online advertisement ranking models are evolving from probabilistic metrics like conversion rate (CVR) to numerical business metrics like post-click gross merchandise volume (GMV). Unlike the well-studied…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-29 Xinyu Li , Sishuo Chen , Guipeng Xv , Li Zhang , Mingxuan Luo , Zhangming Chan , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Han Zhu , Jian Xu , Chen Lin

In online advertising, conventional post-click conversion rate (CVR) estimation models are trained using clicked samples. However, during online serving the models need to estimate for all impression ads, leading to the sample selection…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2022-01-21 Zixuan Xu , Penghui Wei , Weimin Zhang , Shaoguo Liu , Liang Wang , Bo Zheng

The delayed feedback problem is one of the imperative challenges in online advertising, which is caused by the highly diversified feedback delay of a conversion varying from a few minutes to several days. It is hard to design an appropriate…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-08-16 Haoming Li , Feiyang Pan , Xiang Ao , Zhao Yang , Min Lu , Junwei Pan , Dapeng Liu , Lei Xiao , Qing He

User post-click conversion prediction is of high interest to researchers and developers. Recent studies employ multi-task learning to tackle the selection bias and data sparsity problem, two severe challenges in post-click behavior…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2023-07-19 Menghan Wang , Jinming Yang , Yuchen Guo , Yuming Shen , Mengying Zhu , Yanlin Wang
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