相关论文: A Theory of Updating Ambiguous Information

This paper proposes and axiomatizes a new updating rule: Relative Maximum Likelihood (RML) for ambiguous beliefs represented by a set of priors (C). This rule takes the form of applying Bayes' rule to a subset of C. This subset is a linear…

Models of updating a set of priors either do not allow a decision maker to make inference about her priors (full bayesian updating or FB) or require an extreme degree of selection (maximum likelihood updating or ML). I characterize a…

There is a large body of evidence that decision makers frequently depart from Bayesian updating. This paper introduces a model, robust maximum likelihood (RML) updating, where deviations from Bayesian updating are due to multiple…

An updating rule specifies how an agent reacts to information. An updating rule is Blackwell monotone if more information is always better for an agent in a decision problem and strictly Blackwell monotone if, in addition, there is always a…

The choice of free parameters in network models is subjective, since it depends on what topological properties are being monitored. However, we show that the Maximum Likelihood (ML) principle indicates a unique, statistically rigorous…

We consider how an agent should update her uncertainty when it is represented by a set $\P$ of probability distributions and the agent observes that a random variable $X$ takes on value $x$, given that the agent makes decisions using the…

This paper investigates an information update system in which a mobile device monitors a physical process and sends status updates to an access point (AP). A fundamental trade-off arises between the timeliness of the information maintained…

In this article, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling social agents in the case of continuos opinions models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable $x$, we will see that…

Cheng(2021) proposes and characterizes Relative Maximum Likelihood (RML) updating rule when the ambiguous beliefs are represented by a set of priors. Relatedly, this note proposes and characterizes Extended RML updating rule when the…

We consider how an agent should update her uncertainty when it is represented by a set P of probability distributions and the agent observes that a random variable X takes on value x, given that the agent makes decisions using the minimax…

Currently, there is renewed interest in the problem, raised by Shafer in 1985, of updating probabilities when observations are incomplete. This is a fundamental problem in general, and of particular interest for Bayesian networks. Recently,…

This paper develops a theory of learning under ambiguity induced by the decision maker's beliefs about the collection of data correlated with the true state of the world. Within our framework, two classical results on Bayesian learning…

Currently, there is renewed interest in the problem, raised by Shafer in 1985, of updating probabilities when observations are incomplete (or set-valued). This is a fundamental problem, and of particular interest for Bayesian networks.…

This paper modifies Jaynes's axioms of plausible reasoning and derives the minimum relative entropy principle, Bayes's rule, as well as maximum likelihood from first principles. The new axioms, which I call the Optimum Information…

Large Language Models~(LLMs) struggle with providing current information due to the outdated pre-training data. Existing methods for updating LLMs, such as knowledge editing and continual fine-tuning, have significant drawbacks in…

Confirmation bias, the tendency to seek evidence that supports rather than challenges one's belief, hinders one's reasoning ability. We examine whether large language models (LLMs) exhibit confirmation bias by adapting the rule-discovery…

In this paper we formulate the problem of inference under incomplete information in very general terms. This includes modelling the process responsible for the incompleteness, which we call the incompleteness process. We allow the process…

When machine learning systems meet real world applications, accuracy is only one of several requirements. In this paper, we assay a complementary perspective originating from the increasing availability of pre-trained and regularly…

We present a semantics for adding uncertainty to conditional logics for default reasoning and belief revision. We are able to treat conditional sentences as statements of conditional probability, and express rules for revision such as "If A…

This paper presents some results on the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation from incomplete data. Finite sample properties of conditional observed information matrices are established. They possess positive definiteness and the same Loewner…