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Convective available potential energy (CAPE), a metric associated with severe weather, is expected to increase with warming. Under the most widely-accepted theory, developed for strongly convective regimes, mean CAPE should rise following…
This article introduces an analytic formula for entraining convective available potential energy (ECAPE) with an entrainment rate that is determined directly from the storm environment. Extending previous formulas derived in Peters et al.…
Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important variable for forecasting severe weather and understanding deep convection and precipitation. The latest versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and related Global Ensemble…
Atmospheric moist available potential energy (MAPE) has been traditionally defined as the potential energy of a moist atmosphere relative to that of the adiabatically sorted reference state defining a global potential energy minimum.…
Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting in edge-enabled grids requires balancing forecasting accuracy, robustness under weather-driven distribution shifts, and strict latency constraints. Existing models work well under normal conditions but…
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, posing serious threats to human life, biodiversity, and ecosystems. A key objective of extreme event attribution (EEA) is to assess whether and to what extent anthropogenic…
Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…
The product of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation rate has previously been used as a proxy for cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash counts in climate change applications. Here the ability of this proxy, denoted…
To elucidate how land surface state and soil moisture dynamics regulate moist convection, and how convective rainfall subsequently reshapes surface and root-zone hydrology, we develop a stochastic dynamical model that couples soil moisture,…
The study of loss function distributions is critical to characterize a model's behaviour on a given machine learning problem. For example, while the quality of a model is commonly determined by the average loss assessed on a testing set,…
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEWs) dominate atmospheric variability on timescales of 2--30 days in the Tropics, bringing episodes of widespread heavy precipitation. This study compares the representation of CCEWs and their…
Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…
To study the diurnal evolution of the convective cloud field, we develop a precipitation cell tracking algorithm which records the merging and fragmentation of convective cells during their life cycles, and apply it on large eddy simulation…
A great body of research literature pertaining to microburst generation in convective storms has focused on thermodynamic factors of the pre-convective environment as well as storm morphology as observed by radar imagery. Derived products…
Precipitation extremes produced by convection have been found to intensify with near-surface temperatures at a Clausius-Clapeyron rate of $6$ to $7\%$ K$^{-1}$ in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). However, these…
In order to explore the effects of climate change on atmospheric convection and the water cycle, we develop and analyse an extension of the Rainy-B\'enard model, which is itself a moist version of the Rayleigh-B\'enard model of dry…
The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…
This work has been motivated by the challenge of the 2017 conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017), with the goal of predicting daily precipitation quantiles at the $99.8\%$ level for each month at observed and unobserved locations.…
Idealized convection-permitting simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) have become a popular tool for understanding the physical processes leading to horizontal variability of tropical water vapor and rainfall. However, the…
Recent studies indicate that the effects of inter-annual climate-based variability in power system planning are significant and that long samples of demand & weather data (spanning multiple decades) should be considered. At the same time,…