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A computationally simple approach to inference in state space models is proposed, using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC avoids evaluation of an intractable likelihood by matching summary statistics for the observed data with…

Score matching is an alternative to maximum likelihood (ML) for estimating a probability distribution parametrized up to a constant of proportionality. By fitting the ''score'' of the distribution, it sidesteps the need to compute this…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-06 Chirag Pabbaraju , Dhruv Rohatgi , Anish Sevekari , Holden Lee , Ankur Moitra , Andrej Risteski

Model selection in the presence of intractable likelihoods remains a central challenge in Bayesian inference. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides a flexible likelihood-free framework, but its use for model choice is known to be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-03 Clara Grazian

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be viewed as an analytic approximation of an intractable likelihood coupled with an elementary simulation step. Such a view, combined with a suitable instrumental prior distribution permits…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-01-04 F. J. Rubio , Adam M. Johansen

Parametric statistical models that are implicitly defined in terms of a stochastic data generating process are used in a wide range of scientific disciplines because they enable accurate modeling. However, learning the parameters from…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-24 Traiko Dinev , Michael U. Gutmann

Mechanistic models of single-neuron dynamics have been extensively studied in computational neuroscience. However, identifying which models can quantitatively reproduce empirically measured data has been challenging. We propose to overcome…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a family of computational techniques in Bayesian statistics. These techniques allow to fi t a model to data without relying on the computation of the model likelihood. They instead require to…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-12-27 Maxime Lenormand , Franck Jabot , Guillaume Deffuant

Likelihood-free inference refers to inference when a likelihood function cannot be explicitly evaluated, which is often the case for models based on simulators. Most of the literature is based on sample-based `Approximate Bayesian…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-11-22 Conor Durkan , George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

Bayesian inference is a principled framework for dealing with uncertainty. The practitioner can perform an initial assumption for the physical phenomenon they want to model (prior belief), collect some data and then adjust the initial…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-10 Vasileios Gkolemis , Michael Gutmann

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular computational method for likelihood-free Bayesian inference. The term "likelihood-free" refers to problems where the likelihood is intractable to compute or estimate directly, but where it…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-07-21 Stuart Barber , Jochen Voss , Mark Webster

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular likelihood-free inference method for models with intractable likelihood functions. As ABC methods usually rely on comparing summary statistics of observed and simulated data, the choice of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-22 Ayush Bharti , Louis Filstroff , Samuel Kaski

This chapter will appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). The conceptual and methodological framework that underpins approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is targetted primarily towards problems in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-03-20 Christopher C Drovandi , Clara Grazian , Kerrie Mengersen , Christian Robert

In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian parameter inference for observation driven time series models. Such statistical models appear in a wide variety of applications, including econometrics and applied mathematics. This…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-04-01 Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas , Elena Ehrlich

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-01-07 Joshua J Bon , David J Warne , David J Nott , Christopher Drovandi

The likelihood-free sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms, are increasingly popular inference tools for complex biological models. Such algorithms proceed by constructing a succession of probability distributions over…

统计计算 · 统计学 2012-10-12 Daniel Silk , Saran Filippi , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) enables statistical inference in simulator-based models whose likelihoods are difficult to calculate but easy to simulate from. ABC constructs a kernel-type approximation to the posterior distribution…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-02 Yuexi Wang , Tetsuya Kaji , Veronika Ročková

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is commonly used for parameter estimation and model comparison for intractable simulator-based models whose likelihood function cannot be evaluated. In this paper we instead investigate the feasibility…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-13 Marko Järvenpää , Jukka Corander

Likelihood-free inference for simulator-based statistical models has developed rapidly from its infancy to a useful tool for practitioners. However, models with more than a handful of parameters still generally remain a challenge for the…

Many modern statistical applications involve inference for complicated stochastic models for which the likelihood function is difficult or even impossible to calculate, and hence conventional likelihood-based inferential echniques cannot be…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-05-29 Simon R. White , Theodore Kypraios , Simon P. Preston

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-06-29 Alexander Moreno , Tameem Adel , Edward Meeds , James M. Rehg , Max Welling