相关论文: Bridging Bayesian, frequentist and fiducial (BFF) …

The recent article `Satellite conjunction analysis and the false confidence theorem' (Balch, Martin, and Ferson, 2019, Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series A) points to certain difficulties with Bayesian analysis when used for models…

Fuzzy data, prevalent in social sciences and other fields, capture uncertainties arising from subjective evaluations and measurement imprecision. Despite significant advancements in fuzzy statistics, a unified inferential regression-based…

Bayesian inference affords scientists with powerful tools for testing hypotheses. One of these tools is the Bayes factor, which indexes the extent to which support for one hypothesis over another is updated after seeing the data. Part of…

This article reviews and develops an epistemological tradition in the philosophy of science, known as convergentism, which holds that inference methods should be assessed based on their ability to converge to the truth across a range of…

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an…

Beyond estimating parameters of interest from data, one of the key goals of statistical inference is to properly quantify uncertainty in these estimates. In Bayesian inference, this uncertainty is provided by the posterior distribution, the…

A substantial generalisation is put forward of the theory of subjective fiducial inference as it was outlined in earlier papers. In particular, this theory is extended to deal with cases where the data are discrete or categorical rather…

A vital stage in the mathematical modelling of real-world systems is to calibrate a model's parameters to observed data. Likelihood-free parameter inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computation, build Monte Carlo samples of the…

Bayes factors are characterized by both the powerful mathematical framework of Bayesian statistics and the useful interpretation as evidence quantification. Former requires a parameter distribution that changes by seeing the data, latter…

In this article, we consider the problem of estimating the parameters of the Fr\'echet distribution from both frequentist and Bayesian points of view. First we briefly describe different frequentist approaches, namely, maximum likelihood,…

Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is…

R. A. Fisher introduced the fiducial distribution as a potential replacement for the Bayesian posterior distribution in the 1930s. During the past century, fiducial approaches have been explored in various parametric and nonparametric…

This article expands the framework of Bayesian inference and provides direct probabilistic methods for approaching inference tasks that are typically handled with information theory. We treat Bayesian probability updating as a random…

Empirical Bayes methods offer valuable tools for a large class of compound decision problems. In this tutorial we describe some basic principles of the empirical Bayes paradigm stressing their frequentist interpretation. Emphasis is placed…

Bayesian inference can often be sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters of the prior or likelihood, yet defining and quantifying this sensitivity in a principled and computationally feasible way remains challenging in practice.…

The simultaneous estimation of multiple unknown parameters lies at heart of a broad class of important problems across science and technology. Currently, the state-of-the-art performance in the such problems is achieved by nonparametric…

Simulator-based models are models for which the likelihood is intractable but simulation of synthetic data is possible. They are often used to describe complex real-world phenomena, and as such can often be misspecified in practice.…

While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal…

The primary objective of this paper is to revisit and make a case for the merits of R.A. Fisher's objections to the decision-theoretic framing of frequentist inference. It is argued that this framing is congruent with the Bayesian but…

Divide-and-conquer methods use large-sample approximations to provide frequentist guarantees when each block of data is both small enough to facilitate efficient computation and large enough to support approximately valid inferences. When…