相关论文: Belief Error and Non-Bayesian Social Learning: Exp…

We investigate investors voluntary disclosure decisions under uncertainty about their information endowment (Dye 1985). In our model, an investor may receive initial evidence about a target firm. Conditional on learning the initial…

Algorithms such as Differentially Private SGD enable training machine learning models with formal privacy guarantees. However, there is a discrepancy between the protection that such algorithms guarantee in theory and the protection they…

This paper initiates the study of the testable implications of choice data in settings where agents have privacy preferences. We adapt the standard conceptualization of consumer choice theory to a situation where the consumer is aware of,…

We describe Bayesian inference for the parameters of Gaussian models of bounded data protected by differential privacy. Using this setting, we demonstrate that analysts can and should take constraints imposed by the bounds into account when…

In many cases, neural networks perform well on test data, but tend to overestimate their confidence on out-of-distribution data. This has led to adoption of Bayesian neural networks, which better capture uncertainty and therefore more…

Classical Bayesian mechanism design relies on the common prior assumption, but such prior is often not available in practice. We study the design of prior-independent mechanisms that relax this assumption: the seller is selling an…

Many resources for forensic scholars and practitioners, such as journal articles, guidance documents, and textbooks, address how to make a value of evidence assessment in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) when deciding between two…

We study the query complexity of Bayesian Private Learning: a learner wishes to locate a random target within an interval by submitting queries, in the presence of an adversary who observes all of her queries but not the responses. How many…

Pricing decisions of companies require an understanding of the causal effect of a price change on the demand. When real-life pricing experiments are infeasible, data-driven decision-making must be based on alternative data sources such as…

Forecasting techniques for assessing the power of future experiments to discriminate between theories or discover new laws of nature are of great interest in many areas of science. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian forecasting method…

Bayes' rule has enabled innumerable powerful algorithms of statistical signal processing and statistical machine learning. However, when model misspecifications exist in prior and/or data distributions, the direct application of Bayes' rule…

Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…

Especially when facing reliability data with limited information (e.g., a small number of failures), there are strong motivations for using Bayesian inference methods. These include the option to use information from physics-of-failure or…

Differential privacy guarantees allow the results of a statistical analysis involving sensitive data to be released without compromising the privacy of any individual taking part. Achieving such guarantees generally requires the injection…

Local differential privacy is a differential privacy paradigm in which individuals first apply a privacy mechanism to their data (often by adding noise) before transmitting the result to a curator. The noise for privacy results in…

We examine machine learning models in a setup where individuals have the choice to share optional personal information with a decision-making system, as seen in modern insurance pricing models. Some users consent to their data being used…

Classical Bayesian persuasion assumes that senders fully understand how receivers form beliefs and make decisions--an assumption that rarely holds when receivers possess private information or exhibit non-Bayesian behavior. In this paper,…

Bayesian clinical trials can benefit of available historical information through the elicitation of informative prior distributions. Concerns are however often raised about the potential for prior-data conflict and the impact of Bayes test…

Bayesian methods lie at the heart of modern data science and provide a powerful scaffolding for estimation in data-constrained settings and principled quantification and propagation of uncertainty. Yet in many real-world use cases where…

We consider a decision maker who is unaware of objects to be sampled and thus cannot form beliefs about the occurrence of particular objects. Ex ante she can form beliefs about the occurrence of novelty and the frequencies of yet to be…