相关论文: Forecasting Probability of Default for Consumer Lo…

Bundle recommendation aims to provide a bundle of items to satisfy the user preference on e-commerce platform. Existing successful solutions are based on the contrastive graph learning paradigm where graph neural networks (GNNs) are…

In this paper, we study the problem of learning one-dimensional Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) with a specific focus on estimating both the model order and the mixing distribution from independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)…

Motivated by the increasing exposition of decision makers to both statistical and judgemental based sources of demand information, we develop in this paper a fuzzy Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) for the newsvendor permitting to mix…

We compare observed corporate cumulative default probabilities to those calculated using a stochastic model based on an extension of the work of Black and Cox and find that corporations default as if via diffusive dynamics. The model, based…

Probability theory has become the predominant framework for quantifying uncertainty across scientific and engineering disciplines, with a particular focus on measurement and control systems. However, the widespread reliance on simple…

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are used for inference and prediction in a wide range of different applications providing a powerful scientific tool. An increasing number of sources of data are becoming available, introducing a…

We design a system for risk-analyzing and pricing portfolios of non-performing consumer credit loans. The rapid development of credit lending business for consumers heightens the need for trading portfolios formed by overdue loans as a…

As several studies have shown, predicting credit risk is still a major concern for the financial services industry and is receiving a lot of scholarly interest. This area of study is crucial because it aids financial organizations in…

In this paper we propose a method to obtain global explanations for trained black-box classifiers by sampling their decision function to learn alternative interpretable models. The envisaged approach provides a unified solution to…

This paper characterizes the probability of a market failure defined as the default of two or more globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) in a small interval of time. The default probabilities of the G-SIBs are correlated through…

The Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) is a popular tool for incorporating sparsity into joint multivariate distributions. The G-Wishart distribution, a conjugate prior for precision matrices satisfying general GGM constraints, has now been in…

This paper presents the first application of Gaussian Mixture Copula Models to the statistical modeling of driving scenarios for the safety validation of automated driving systems. Knowledge of the joint probability distribution of scenario…

. A sampling plan is a pilot tool for a supply and demand chain quality check strategy. These plans proved to be economically viable for the quality inspection processes but the uncertainty in the plan parameters challenged the reliability…

Predicting corporate default risk has long been a crucial topic in the finance field, as bankruptcies impose enormous costs on market participants as well as the economy as a whole. This paper aims to forecast frailty correlated default…

Constrained clustering has gained significant attention in the field of machine learning as it can leverage prior information on a growing amount of only partially labeled data. Following recent advances in deep generative models, we…

The mixture models have become widely used in clustering, given its probabilistic framework in which its based, however, for modern databases that are characterized by their large size, these models behave disappointingly in setting out the…

We apply multiple testing procedures to the validation of estimated default probabilities in credit rating systems. The goal is to identify rating classes for which the probability of default is estimated inaccurately, while still…

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms have grown rapidly over the past decade as the network infrastructure has improved and the demand for personal lending has grown. Such platforms allow users to create peer-to-peer lending relationships…

It has become standard practice in the non-life insurance industry to employ Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) for insurance pricing. However, these GLMs traditionally work only with a priori characteristics of policyholders, while nowadays…

Credit default prediction is a tabular learning problem with severe class imbalance, heterogeneous features, and tight latency budgets. Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) approach this problem through in-context learning, which makes their…