相关论文: Right Decisions from Wrong Predictions: A Mechanis…

We develop a new framework for designing online policies given access to an oracle providing statistical information about an offline benchmark. Having access to such prediction oracles enables simple and natural Bayesian selection…

Machine learning based decision making systems are increasingly affecting humans. An individual can suffer an undesirable outcome under such decision making systems (e.g. denied credit) irrespective of whether the decision is fair or…

We study the selection of agents based on mutual nominations, a theoretical problem with many applications from committee selection to AI alignment. As agents both select and are selected, they may be incentivized to misrepresent their true…

Calibration has emerged as a foundational goal in ``trustworthy machine learning'', in part because of its strong decision theoretic semantics. Independent of the underlying distribution, and independent of the decision maker's utility…

Peer prediction mechanisms are often adopted to elicit truthful contributions from crowd workers when no ground-truth verification is available. Recently, mechanisms of this type have been developed to incentivize effort exertion, in…

An important use of machine learning is to learn what people value. What posts or photos should a user be shown? Which jobs or activities would a person find rewarding? In each case, observations of people's past choices can inform our…

Improving the accuracy of forecast models for physical systems such as the atmosphere is a crucial ongoing effort. Errors in state estimation for these often highly nonlinear systems has been the primary focus of recent research, but as…

The burgeoning field of algorithms with predictions studies the problem of using possibly imperfect machine learning predictions to improve online algorithm performance. While nearly all existing algorithms in this framework make no…

We are interested in probabilistic prediction in online settings in which data does not follow a probability distribution. Our work seeks to achieve two goals: (1) producing valid probabilities that accurately reflect model confidence; and…

Peer prediction refers to a collection of mechanisms for eliciting information from human agents when direct verification of the obtained information is unavailable. They are designed to have a game-theoretic equilibrium where everyone…

We investigate the factors contributing to departure and arrival delays at a major international airport and develop predictive models to estimate both the likelihood and duration of delays. Using logistic regression, random forest, and…

Wind power forecasting is essential for managing daily operations at wind farms and enabling market operators to manage power uncertainty effectively in demand planning. This paper explores advanced cross-temporal forecasting models and…

Penalized regression has become a standard tool for model building across a wide range of application domains. Common practice is to tune the amount of penalization to tradeoff bias and variance or to optimize some other measure of…

We initiate the study of incentive-compatible forecasting competitions in which multiple forecasters make predictions about one or more events and compete for a single prize. We have two objectives: (1) to incentivize forecasters to report…

In many machine learning applications, there are multiple decision-makers involved, both automated and human. The interaction between these agents often goes unaddressed in algorithmic development. In this work, we explore a simple version…

The discrepancy between realized volatility and the market's view of volatility has been known to predict individual equity options at the monthly horizon. It is not clear how this predictability depends on a forecast's ability to predict…

Contract scheduling is a widely studied framework for designing real-time systems with interruptible capabilities. Previous work has showed that a prediction on the interruption time can help improve the performance of contract-based…

We study the prediction with expert advice setting, where the aim is to produce a decision by combining the decisions generated by a set of experts, e.g., independently running algorithms. We achieve the min-max optimal dynamic regret under…

Machine learning has been used in all kinds of fields. In this article, we introduce how machine learning can be applied into time series problem. Especially, we use the airline ticket prediction problem as our specific problem. Airline…

Accurately predicting faulty software units helps practitioners target faulty units and prioritize their efforts to maintain software quality. Prior studies use machine-learning models to detect faulty software code. We revisit past studies…