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We study identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment variable on a long-term outcome using data from an observational and an experimental domain. The observational data are subject to unobserved confounding. Furthermore,…

Based on technological advances in sensing modalities, randomized trials with primary outcomes represented as high-dimensional vectors have become increasingly prevalent. For example, these outcomes could be week-long time-series data from…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-16 Yujin Jeong , Emily Fox , Ramesh Johari

We study the problem of selecting covariates for unbiased estimation of the total causal effect.Existing approaches typically rely on global causal structure learning over all variables, or on strong assumptions such as causal sufficiency -…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-22 Zeyu Liu , Zheng Li , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Kun Zhang

In causal inference, it is common to estimate the causal effect of a single treatment variable on an outcome. However, practitioners may also be interested in the effect of simultaneous interventions on multiple covariates of a fixed target…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-24 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , Dominik Rothenhäusler

The study of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured spatially varying confounders has garnered increasing attention. However, a general framework for identifiability, which is critical for reliable causal inference from observational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-27 Tommy Tang , Xinran Li , Bo Li

Many popular methods for building confidence intervals on causal effects under high-dimensional confounding require strong "ultra-sparsity" assumptions that may be difficult to validate in practice. To alleviate this difficulty, we here…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-05-06 Jelena Bradic , Stefan Wager , Yinchu Zhu

This paper concerns robust inference on average treatment effects following model selection. In the selection on observables framework, we show how to construct confidence intervals based on a doubly-robust estimator that are robust to…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-04-13 Max H. Farrell

Predicting the effect of interventions with many possible variations, e.g., therapeutic content that affects mental health outcomes or an earnings call transcript that drives movement in share price, is useful across several domains.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-27 Nikita Dhawan , Arnav Paruthi , Andrew Kim , Lovedeep Gondara , Jekaterina Novikova , Chris J. Maddison

Confounding bias, missing data, and selection bias are three common obstacles to valid causal inference in the data sciences. Covariate adjustment is the most pervasive technique for recovering casual effects from confounding bias. In this…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-09-17 Mojdeh Saadati , Jin Tian

Obtaining valid treatment effect inference remains a challenging problem when dealing with numerous instruments and non-sparse control variables. In this paper, we propose a novel ridge regularization-based instrumental variables method for…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-10-17 Xiduo Chen , Xingdong Feng , Antonio F. Galvao , Yeheng Ge

There are many settings where researchers are interested in estimating average treatment effects and are willing to rely on the unconfoundedness assumption, which requires that the treatment assignment be as good as random conditional on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-02-02 Susan Athey , Guido W. Imbens , Stefan Wager

Sparse additive modeling is a class of effective methods for performing high-dimensional nonparametric regression. This paper develops a sparse additive model focused on estimation of treatment effect-modification with simultaneous…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-02 Hyung Park , Eva Petkova , Thaddeus Tarpey , R. Todd Ogden

In this paper, we propose a robust method to estimate the average treatment effects in observational studies when the number of potential confounders is possibly much greater than the sample size. We first use a class of penalized…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-12-21 Yang Ning , Sida Peng , Kosuke Imai

Consider the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect with an instrument variable, where the instrument unconfoundedness holds after adjusting for a set of measured covariates. Several unknown functions of the covariates…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-09-22 Baoluo Sun , Zhiqiang Tan

Mixed-effect models are very popular for analyzing data with a hierarchical structure, e.g. repeated observations within subjects in a longitudinal design, patients nested within centers in a multicenter design. However, recently, due to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-05-09 Abhik Ghosh , Magne Thoresen

Identifying effects of actions (treatments) on outcome variables from observational data and causal assumptions is a fundamental problem in causal inference. This identification is made difficult by the presence of confounders which can be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-03-19 Ilya Shpitser , Tyler VanderWeele , James M. Robins

Nonlinearity and endogeneity are prevalent challenges in causal analysis using observational data. This paper proposes an inference procedure for a nonlinear and endogenous marginal effect function, defined as the derivative of the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-06-19 Qingliang Fan , Zijian Guo , Ziwei Mei , Cun-Hui Zhang

Area-specific causal inference is important in many policy and survey applications, where the goal is to evaluate treatment effects for small geographic or demographic domains. Existing causal small area estimation methods, however,…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-05-06 Tsubasa Ito , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Valid estimation of treatment effects from observational data requires proper control of confounding. If the number of covariates is large relative to the number of observations, then controlling for all available covariates is infeasible.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-01-11 Joseph Antonelli , Matthew Cefalu , Nathan Palmer , Denis Agniel

Estimating causal effects in a target population with unmeasured confounders is challenging, especially when instrumental variables (IVs) are unavailable. However, IVs from auxiliary populations with similar problems can help infer causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-06 Wei Li , Jiapeng Liu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng