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A model-based signal processing framework is proposed for pandemic trend forecasting and control, by using non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) at regional and country levels worldwide. The control objective is to prescribe quantifiable…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2021-11-23 Reza Sameni

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are crucial for controlling pandemics, but existing research often overlooks the heterogeneity of individual behavior, which can lead to inaccurate evaluations of the effectiveness of strategies. In…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2026-03-09 Xihan Zhang , Yuqing Liu , Chen Zhao , Guijun Li

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, and virus-contact tracing can greatly reduce the spread of the virus during a pandemic. In the wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2020-12-16 Jingjing He , Xuefei Guan , Xiaochang Duan , Tian Shen , Jing Lin

Various non pharmaceutical interventions have been settled to minimise the burden of the COVID-19 outbreak. We build a framework to analyse the dynamics of non pharmaceutical interventions, to distinguish between mitigations measures…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2023-01-23 Laurent Evain , Jean-Jacques Loeb

National responses to the Covid-19 pandemic varied markedly across countries, from business-as-usual to complete shutdowns. Policies aimed at disrupting the viral transmission cycle and preventing the healthcare system from being…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2021-10-27 Arash Saeidpour , Pejman Rohani

Infectious diseases and human behavior are intertwined. On one side, our movements and interactions are the engines of transmission. On the other, the unfolding of viruses might induce changes to our daily activities. While intuitive, our…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2021-06-02 Nicola Perra

Facing a global epidemic of new infectious diseases such as COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which reduce transmission rates without medical actions, are being implemented around the world to mitigate spreads. One of the…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2021-03-04 Naoya Fujiwara , Tomokatsu Onaga , Takayuki Wada , Shouhei Takeuchi , Junji Seto , Tomoki Nakaya , Kazuyuki Aihara

A crucial aspect of managing a public health crisis is to effectively balance prevention and mitigation strategies, while taking their socio-economic impact into account. In particular, determining the influence of different…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are effective measures to contain a pandemic. Yet, such control measures commonly have a negative effect on the economy. Here, we propose a macro-level approach to support resolving this…

神经与进化计算 · 计算机科学 2021-02-25 Rohit Salgotra , Thomas Seidelmann , Dominik Fischer , Sanaz Mostaghim , Amiram Moshaiov

This study investigates the influence of different types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on epidemic progression using SIR compartmental models. We analyze the optimization of two distinct targets: the final epidemic size and the…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2026-04-10 Eric Rozán , Marcelo N Kuperman , Sebastián Bouzat

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented global public health challenge. In the United States (US), state governments have implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as physical distance…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-15 Shanghong Xie , Wenbo Wang , Qinxia Wang , Yuanjia Wang , Donglin Zeng

This paper introduces a dynamic panel SIR (DP-SIR) model to investigate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the COVID-19 transmission dynamics with panel data from 9 countries across the globe. By constructing scenarios…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2021-06-07 Xiaohui Chen , Ziyi Qiu

Given multiple new COVID-19 variants are continuously emerging, non-pharmaceutical interventions are still primary control strategies to curb the further spread of coronavirus. However, implementing strict interventions over extended…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2022-03-01 Xiao Zhou , Xiaohu Zhang , Paolo Santi , Carlo Ratti

This article considers the minimization of the total number of infected individuals over the course of an epidemic in which the rate of infectious contacts can be reduced by time-dependent nonpharmaceutical interventions. The societal and…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2023-03-16 Tom Britton , Lasse Leskelä

In fighting infectious diseases posing a global health threat, ranging from influenza to Zika, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), such as social distancing and face covering, remain mitigation measures public health can resort to.…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2024-04-12 Alina Glaubitz , Feng Fu

In the absence of drugs and vaccines, policymakers use non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing to decrease rates of disease-causing contact, with the aim of reducing or delaying the epidemic peak. These measures carry…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2021-04-22 Dylan H. Morris , Fernando W. Rossine , Joshua B. Plotkin , Simon A. Levin

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including mask-wearing, physical distancing, and hygiene measures, provide the primary means of reducing transmission in the early stages of an epidemic. Individuals adopt one of two…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2026-05-22 Yuan Liu , Michael Sieber , Bin Wu , Arne Traulsen

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmingly demonstrated the need to accurately evaluate the effects of implementing new or altering existing nonpharmaceutical interventions. Since these interventions applied at the societal level…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2021-01-27 Daniel K. Sewell , Aaron Miller

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2019/2020, authorities have used temporary ad-hoc policy measures, such as lockdowns and mass quarantines, to slow its transmission. However, the consequences of widespread use of these unprecedented measures…

Several models have been developed to predict how the COVID-19 pandemic spreads, and how it could be contained with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing restrictions and school and business closures. This paper…

神经与进化计算 · 计算机科学 2020-08-04 Risto Miikkulainen , Olivier Francon , Elliot Meyerson , Xin Qiu , Elisa Canzani , Babak Hodjat
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