相关论文: A Bayesian Hidden Semi-Markov Model with Covariate…

State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time…

A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…

The paper investigates the problems of quickest change detection in Markov models and hidden Markov models (HMMs). Sequential observations are taken from a (hidden) Markov model. At some unknown time, an event occurs in the system and…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful tools for modeling sequential data, where the underlying states evolve in a stochastic manner and are only indirectly observable. Traditional HMM approaches are well-established for linear sequences,…

Exposure to air pollution is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Recent technological advancements permit the collection of time-resolved personal exposure data. Such data are often incomplete with missing observations and…

In a zero-sum stochastic game with signals, at each stage, two adversary players take decisions and receive a stage payoff determined by these decisions and a variable called state. The state follows a Markov chain, that is controlled by…

Continuous-time assessments of game outcomes in sports have become increasingly common in the last decade. In American football, only discrete-time estimates of play value were possible, since the most advanced public football datasets were…

Neural activity data can be associated with behavioral and physiological variables by analyzing their changes in the temporal domain. However, such relationships are often difficult to quantify and test, requiring advanced computational…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are one of the most fundamental and widely used statistical tools for modeling discrete time series. In general, learning HMMs from data is computationally hard (under cryptographic assumptions), and…

We investigate nonlinear regression for nonstationary sequential data. In most real-life applications such as business domains including finance, retail, energy and economy, timeseries data exhibits nonstationarity due to the temporally…

We consider penalized estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) with multivariate Normal observations. In the moderate-to-large dimensional setting, estimation for HMMs remains challenging in practice, due to several concerns arising from…

Biological systems need to react to stimuli over a broad spectrum of timescales. If and how this ability can emerge without external fine-tuning is a puzzle. We consider here this problem in discrete Markovian systems, where we can leverage…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form a useful tool for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing environments such as road networks and office…

Information seeking process is an important topic in information seeking behavior research. Both qualitative and empirical methods have been adopted in analyzing information seeking processes, with major focus on uncovering the latent…

Non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHHMM) are a subclass of dependent mixture models used for semi-supervised learning, where both transition probabilities between the latent states and mean parameter of the probability distribution of…

The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a fundamental tool for sequence modeling that cleanly separates the hidden state from the emission structure. However, this separation makes it difficult to fit HMMs to large datasets in modern NLP, and they…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used statistical models for modeling sequential data. The parameter estimation for HMMs from time series data is an important learning problem. The predominant methods for parameter estimation are…

It is of some interest to understand how statistically based mechanisms for signal processing might be integrated with biologically motivated mechanisms such as neural networks. This paper explores a novel hybrid approach for classifying…

We provide an online framework for analyzing data recorded by smart watches during running activities. In particular, we focus on identifying variations in the behavior of one or more measurements caused by changes in physical condition,…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly used for disease progression modeling when the true patient health state is not fully known. Since HMMs typically have multiple local optima, incorporating additional patient covariates can improve…