相关论文: An Accurate and Fully-Automated Ensemble Model for…

In order to support the advancement of machine learning methods for predicting time-series data, we present a comprehensive dataset designed explicitly for long-term time-series forecasting. We incorporate a collection of datasets obtained…

Accurate evaluation of forecasting models is essential for ensuring reliable predictions. Current practices for evaluating and comparing forecasting models focus on summarising performance into a single score, using metrics such as SMAPE.…

This paper presents a practical architecture for after-sales demand forecasting and monitoring that unifies a revenue- and cluster-aware ensemble of statistical, machine-learning, and deep-learning models with a role-driven analytics layer…

We explore estimation and forecast accuracy for sparse linear models, focusing on scenarios where both predictors and errors carry serial correlations. We establish a clear link between predictor serial correlation and the performance of…

This work presents a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network for forecasting a monthly electricity demand time series with a one-year horizon. The novelty of this work is the use of pattern representation of the seasonal time series as an…

Recent research has shown an increasing interest in utilizing pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for a variety of time series applications. However, there are three main challenges when using LLMs as foundational models for time…

In the context of time series forecasting, it is a common practice to evaluate multiple methods and choose one of these methods or an ensemble for producing the best forecasts. However, choosing among different ensembles over multiple…

We investigate ensemble methods for prediction in an online setting. Unlike all the literature in ensembling, for the first time, we introduce a new approach using a meta learner that effectively combines the base model predictions via…

Data scarcity and discontinuity are common occurrences in the healthcare and epidemiological dataset and often need help in forming an educative decision and forecasting the upcoming scenario. Often, these data are stored as monthly/yearly…

We propose a hybrid meta-learning framework for forecasting and anomaly detection in nonlinear dynamical systems characterized by nonstationary and stochastic behavior. The approach integrates a physics-inspired simulator that captures…

Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of…

Developing models and algorithms to predict nonstationary time series is a long standing statistical problem. It is crucial for many applications, in particular for fashion or retail industries, to make optimal inventory decisions and avoid…

To address the uncertainty in outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, ensembles of forecasts are used. To obtain such an ensemble of forecasts the NWP model is run multiple times, each time with different formulations and/or…

Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting is essential for efficient power grid management, resource allocation, and market stability. Traditional time-series models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear dependencies and…

The motivation of this work is to improve the performance of standard stacking approaches or ensembles, which are composed of simple, heterogeneous base models, through the integration of the generation and selection stages for regression…

Current time-series forecasting models are primarily based on transformer-style neural networks. These models achieve long-term forecasting mainly by scaling up the model size rather than through genuinely autoregressive (AR) rollout. From…

Weather forecasting has seen a shift in methods from numerical simulations to data-driven systems. While initial research in the area focused on deterministic forecasting, recent works have used diffusion models to produce skillful ensemble…

This study presents a hybrid neural network model for short-term (1-6 hours ahead) surface wind speed forecasting, combining Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with observational data from ground weather stations. It relies on the MeteoNet…

Nowadays, weather prediction is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to produce an ensemble of forecasts. Despite of large improvements over the last few decades, they still tend to exhibit systematic bias and dispersion…

Autoregressive Recurrent Neural Networks are widely employed in time-series forecasting tasks, demonstrating effectiveness in univariate and certain multivariate scenarios. However, their inherent structure does not readily accommodate the…