相关论文: Inference in generalized bilinear models

Motivated by the problem of computer-aided detection (CAD) of pulmonary nodules, we introduce methods to propagate and fuse uncertainty information in a multi-stage Bayesian convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture. The question we…

Advances in architectural design, data availability, and compute have driven remarkable progress in semantic segmentation. Yet, these models often rely on relaxed Bayesian assumptions, omitting critical uncertainty information needed for…

Bayesian inference is a popular approach to calibrating uncertainties, but it can underpredict such uncertainties when model misspecification is present, impacting its reliability to inform decision making. Recently, the statistics and…

Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently…

Deep learning (DL) models have received particular attention in medical imaging due to their promising pattern recognition capabilities. However, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) require a huge amount of data, and because of the lack of…

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

This paper introduces the generalized Hausman test as a novel method for detecting non-normality of the latent variable distribution of unidimensional Item Response Theory (IRT) models for binary data. The test utilizes the pairwise maximum…

Under the classical long-span asymptotic framework we develop a class of Generalized Laplace (GL) inference methods for the change-point dates in a linear time series regression model with multiple structural changes analyzed in, e.g., Bai…

While several previous studies have devised methods for segmentation of polyps, most of these methods are not rigorously assessed on multi-center datasets. Variability due to appearance of polyps from one center to another, difference in…

Quantifying predictive uncertainty of neural networks has recently attracted increasing attention. In this work, we focus on measuring uncertainty of graph neural networks (GNNs) for the task of node classification. Most existing GNNs model…

High-dimensional multivariate longitudinal data, which arise when many outcome variables are measured repeatedly over time, are becoming increasingly common in social, behavioral and health sciences. We propose a latent variable model for…

In a standard Bayesian approach to the alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, a precise Dirichlet prior distribution models epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. This Dirichlet prior is then updated with observed data to obtain…

Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…

Over the past decades, researchers and ML practitioners have come up with better and better ways to build, understand and improve the quality of ML models, but mostly under the key assumption that the training data is distributed…

This paper explores generalised probabilistic modelling and uncertainty estimation in comparative LLM-as-a-judge frameworks. We show that existing Product-of-Experts methods are specific cases of a broader framework, enabling diverse…

The gamma belief network (GBN), often regarded as a deep topic model, has demonstrated its potential for uncovering multi-layer interpretable latent representations in text data. Its notable capability to acquire interpretable latent…

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

Decision Focused Learning has emerged as a critical paradigm for integrating machine learning with downstream optimisation. Despite its promise, existing methodologies predominantly rely on probabilistic models and focus narrowly on task…

While several methods for predicting uncertainty on deep networks have been recently proposed, they do not readily translate to large and complex datasets. In this paper we utilize a simplified form of the Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) to…

Surrogate models are statistical or conceptual approximations for more complex simulation models. In this context, it is crucial to propagate the uncertainty induced by limited simulation budget and surrogate approximation error to…