相关论文: Deep Distributional Time Series Models and the Pro…
Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is increasingly difficult in markets characterised by extreme volatility, frequent price spikes, and rapid structural shifts. Deep learning (DL) has been increasingly adopted in EPF due to its…
The demand of probabilistic time series forecasting has been recently raised in various dynamic system scenarios, for example, system identification and prognostic and health management of machines. To this end, we combine the advances in…
We present a novel approach to probabilistic electricity price forecasting which utilizes distributional neural networks. The model structure is based on a deep neural network that contains a so-called probability layer. The network's…
Echo State Networks (ESNs) are a special type of the temporally deep network model, the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), where the recurrent matrix is carefully designed and both the recurrent and input matrices are fixed. An ESN uses the…
Long-lead forecasting for spatio-temporal systems can often entail complex nonlinear dynamics that are difficult to specify it a priori. Current statistical methodologies for modeling these processes are often highly parameterized and thus,…
In the modern power market, electricity trading is an extremely competitive industry. More accurate price forecast is crucial to help electricity producers and traders make better decisions. In this paper, a novel method of convolutional…
Predicting the time series of future evolutions of renewable injections and demands is of utmost importance for the operation of power systems. However, the current state of the art is mostly focused on mean-value time series predictions…
Contemporary power grids are being challenged by rapid voltage fluctuations that are caused by large-scale deployment of renewable generation, electric vehicles, and demand response programs. In this context, monitoring the grid's operating…
Electrophysiological observation plays a major role in epilepsy evaluation. However, human interpretation of brain signals is subjective and prone to misdiagnosis. Automating this process, especially seizure detection relying on scalp-based…
Electricity load forecasting plays an important role in the energy planning such as generation and distribution. However, the nonlinearity and dynamic uncertainties in the smart grid environment are the main obstacles in forecasting…
We present a novel recurrent neural network architecture specifically designed for day-ahead electricity price forecasting, aimed at improving short-term decision-making and operational management in energy systems. Our combined forecasting…
Deep neural network (DNN) regression models are widely used in applications requiring state-of-the-art predictive accuracy. However, until recently there has been little work on accurate uncertainty quantification for predictions from such…
Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history, which is essential for risk management in downstream decision-making. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time…
Electricity prices strongly depend on seasonality of different time scales, therefore any forecasting of electricity prices has to account for it. Neural networks have proven successful in short-term price-forecasting, but complicated…
Wholesale electricity markets are increasingly integrated via high voltage interconnectors, and inter-regional trade in electricity is growing. To model this, we consider a spatial equilibrium model of price formation, where constraints on…
Precise probabilistic forecasts are fundamental for energy risk management, and there is a wide range of both statistical and machine learning models for this purpose. Inherent to these probabilistic models is some form of uncertainty…
Time series modeling has entered an era of unprecedented growth in the size and complexity of data which require new modeling approaches. While many new general purpose machine learning approaches have emerged, they remain poorly understand…
Echo state networks are computationally lightweight reservoir models inspired by the random projections observed in cortical circuitry. As interest in reservoir computing has grown, networks have become deeper and more intricate. While…
We propose a novel machine learning approach for probabilistic forecasting of hourly day-ahead electricity prices. In contrast with the recent advances in data-rich probabilistic forecasting, which approximates distributions with few…
The study of deep recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and, in particular, of deep Reservoir Computing (RC) is gaining an increasing research attention in the neural networks community. The recently introduced Deep Echo State Network (DeepESN)…