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In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate, that is, the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, such as purchasing goods is fundamental in estimating the value of displaying the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-02-07 Shota Yasui , Gota Morishita , Komei Fujita , Masashi Shibata

One of the difficulties of conversion rate (CVR) prediction is that the conversions can delay and take place long after the clicks. The delayed feedback poses a challenge: fresh data are beneficial to continuous training but may not have…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-08-13 Siyu Gu , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Ying Fan , Guorui Zhou , Xiaoqiang Zhu

Predicting conversion rate (e.g., the probability that a user will purchase an item) is a fundamental problem in machine learning based recommender systems. However, accurate conversion labels are revealed after a long delay, which harms…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2022-11-28 Jia-Qi Yang , De-Chuan Zhan

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is one of the most critical tasks for digital display advertising. Commercial systems often require to update models in an online learning manner to catch up with the evolving data distribution. However,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-07-19 Jia-Qi Yang , Xiang Li , Shuguang Han , Tao Zhuang , De-Chuan Zhan , Xiaoyi Zeng , Bin Tong

In online advertising, it is highly important to predict the probability and the value of a conversion (e.g., a purchase). It not only impacts user experience by showing relevant ads, but also affects ROI of advertisers and revenue of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-26 Hui Gao , Yihan Yang

Alleviating the delayed feedback problem is of crucial importance for the conversion rate(CVR) prediction in online advertising. Previous delayed feedback modeling methods using an observation window to balance the trade-off between waiting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-16 Yu Chen , Jiaqi Jin , Hui Zhao , Pengjie Wang , Guojun Liu , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng

Watch time is widely used as a proxy for user satisfaction in video recommendation platforms. However, raw watch times are influenced by confounding factors such as video duration, popularity, and individual user behaviors, potentially…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-26 Emily Liu , Kuan Han , Minfeng Zhan , Bocheng Zhao , Guanyu Mu , Yang Song

In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate (CVR), meaning the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, is a fundamental task for estimating the value of displaying an advertisement to a user.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-05-20 Yuta Saito , Gota Morishita , Shota Yasui

Implicit feedback (e.g., clicks, dwell times, etc.) is an abundant source of data in human-interactive systems. While implicit feedback has many advantages (e.g., it is inexpensive to collect, user centric, and timely), its inherent biases…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2016-08-17 Thorsten Joachims , Adith Swaminathan , Tobias Schnabel

Predicting the expected value or number of post-click conversions (purchases or other events) is a key task in performance-based digital advertising. In training a conversion optimizer model, one of the most crucial aspects is handling…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-08 Ashwinkumar Badanidiyuru , Andrew Evdokimov , Vinodh Krishnan , Pan Li , Wynn Vonnegut , Jayden Wang

Online advertising platforms use automated auctions to connect advertisers with potential customers, requiring effective bidding strategies to maximize profits. Accurate ad impact estimation requires considering three key factors: delayed…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-24 Yuwei Cheng , Zifeng Zhao , Haifeng Xu

In online advertising under the cost-per-conversion (CPA) model, accurate conversion rate (CVR) prediction is crucial. A major challenge is delayed feedback, where conversions may occur long after user interactions, leading to incomplete…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-15 Chenlu Ding , Jiancan Wu , Yancheng Yuan , Cunchun Li , Xiang Wang , Dingxian Wang , Frank Yang , Andrew Rabinovich

In standard reinforcement learning settings, agents typically assume immediate feedback about the effects of their actions after taking them. However, in practice, this assumption may not hold true due to physical constraints and can…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-27 Armin Karamzade , Kyungmin Kim , Montek Kalsi , Roy Fox

Predicting user responses, such as click-through rate and conversion rate, are critical in many web applications including web search, personalised recommendation, and online advertising. Different from continuous raw features that we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2016-01-12 Weinan Zhang , Tianming Du , Jun Wang

Existing algorithms aiming to learn a binary classifier from positive (P) and unlabeled (U) data generally require estimating the class prior or label noises ahead of building a classification model. However, the estimation and classifier…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-09-01 Tianyu Li , Chien-Chih Wang , Yukun Ma , Patricia Ortal , Qifang Zhao , Bjorn Stenger , Yu Hirate

Recommendation systems aim to predict users' feedback on items not exposed to them. Confounding bias arises due to the presence of unmeasured variables (e.g., the socio-economic status of a user) that can affect both a user's exposure and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-16 Qing Zhang , Xiaoying Zhang , Yang Liu , Hongning Wang , Min Gao , Jiheng Zhang , Ruocheng Guo

As its availability and generality in online services, implicit feedback is more commonly used in recommender systems. However, implicit feedback usually presents noisy samples in real-world recommendation scenarios (such as misclicks or…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2024-05-29 Zhuangzhuang He , Yifan Wang , Yonghui Yang , Peijie Sun , Le Wu , Haoyue Bai , Jinqi Gong , Richang Hong , Min Zhang

Learning under one-sided feedback (i.e., where we only observe the labels for examples we predicted positively on) is a fundamental problem in machine learning -- applications include lending and recommendation systems. Despite this, there…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-14 Heinrich Jiang , Qijia Jiang , Aldo Pacchiano

Conversion rate prediction is critical to many online applications such as digital display advertising. To capture dynamic data distribution, industrial systems often require retraining models on recent data daily or weekly. However, the…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2023-07-25 Yifan Wang , Peijie Sun , Min Zhang , Qinglin Jia , Jingjie Li , Shaoping Ma

In this paper, we consider online learning in generalized linear contextual bandits where rewards are not immediately observed. Instead, rewards are available to the decision-maker only after some delay, which is unknown and stochastic. We…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-03-12 Jose Blanchet , Renyuan Xu , Zhengyuan Zhou
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