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Bayesian modelling of dynamic systems must achieve a compromise between providing a complete mechanistic specification of the process while retaining the flexibility to handle those situations in which data is sparse relative to model…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-11-02 Daniel J. Tait , Bruce J. Worton

Traditional spatio-temporal models for areal data typically begin with spatial structure imposed at the level of random effects and later extend to include temporal dynamics. We propose an alternative hierarchical modeling framework that…

Longitudinal data are important in numerous fields, such as healthcare, sociology and seismology, but real-world datasets present notable challenges for practitioners because they can be high-dimensional, contain structured missingness…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-01 Maksim Sinelnikov , Manuel Haussmann , Harri Lähdesmäki

The COVID-19 pandemic provided many modeling challenges to investigate the evolution of an epidemic process over areal units. A suitable encompassing model must describe the spatio-temporal variations of the disease infection rate of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-20 Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro , Dankmar Boehning , Sujit Sahu

Many models for point process data are defined through a thinning procedure where locations of a base process (often Poisson) are either kept (observed) or discarded (thinned). In this paper, we go back to the fundamentals of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-12 Renaud Alie , David A. Stephens , Alexandra M. Schmidt

Bayesian inference on non-Gaussian data is often non-analytic and requires computationally expensive approximations such as sampling or variational inference. We propose an approximate inference framework primarily designed to be…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-12 Marius Hobbhahn , Philipp Hennig

Motivated by a large ground-level ozone dataset, we propose a new computationally efficient additive approximate Gaussian process. The proposed method incorporates a computational-complexity-reduction method and a separable covariance…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-06-10 Pulong Ma , Bledar A. Konomi , Emily L. Kang

Gaussian processes are arguably the most important class of spatiotemporal models within machine learning. They encode prior information about the modeled function and can be used for exact or approximate Bayesian learning. In many…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-16 Iskander Azangulov , Andrei Smolensky , Alexander Terenin , Viacheslav Borovitskiy

Nonstationary Gaussian processes (GPs) are essential for modeling complex, locally heterogeneous spatial data. A common modeling approach is the spatial deformation method that warps the domain to recover isotropy. However, this static…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-01 Minghao Gu , Weizhi Lin , Qiang Huang

Using a hierarchical construction, we develop methods for a wide and flexible class of models by taking a fully parametric approach to generalized linear mixed models with complex covariance dependence. The Laplace approximation is used to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-31 Jay M. Ver Hoef , Eryn Blagg , Michael Dumelle , Philip M. Dixon , Dale L. Zimmerman , Paul Conn

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-17 Xiaohao Cai , Jason D. McEwen , Marcelo Pereyra

Nonparametric Bayesian models are used routinely as flexible and powerful models of complex data. Many times, a statistician may have additional informative beliefs about data distribution of interest, e.g., its mean or subset components,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-08 Bingjing Tang , Vinayak Rao

Various computational challenges arise when applying Bayesian inference approaches to complex hierarchical models. Sampling-based inference methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo strategies, are renowned for providing accurate results…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-29 Cristian Chiuchiolo , Janet van Niekerk , Håvard Rue

We propose a Bayesian model for mixed ordinal and continuous multivariate data to evaluate a latent spatial Gaussian process. Our proposed model can be used in many contexts where mixed continuous and discrete multivariate responses are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-05-22 Erin M. Schliep , Jennifer A. Hoeting

Bayesian latent space models offer a principled approach to network representation, but rely on correct specification of both geometry and link function. Real-world networks often violate these assumptions, exhibiting geometric mismatch and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-20 Aldric Labarthe

To account for measurement error (ME) in explanatory variables, Bayesian approaches provide a flexible framework, as expert knowledge about unobserved covariates can be incorporated in the prior distributions. However, given the analytic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-08-19 Stefanie Muff , Andrea Riebler , Havard Rue , Philippe Saner , Leonhard Held

Gaussian processes are powerful non-parametric probabilistic models for stochastic functions. However, the direct implementation entails a complexity that is computationally intractable when the number of observations is large, especially…

The Cox regression model is a commonly used model in survival analysis. In public health studies, clinical data are often collected from medical service providers of different locations. There are large geographical variations in the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-07-30 Jinjian Mu , Qingyang Liu , Lynn Kuo , Guanyu Hu

In this article, we study Bayesian inverse problems with multi-layered Gaussian priors. We first describe the conditionally Gaussian layers in terms of a system of stochastic partial differential equations. We build the computational…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-06-30 Muhammad Emzir , Sari Lasanen , Zenith Purisha , Lassi Roininen , Simo Särkkä

This paper investigates Gaussian Markov random field approximations to nonstationary Gaussian fields using graph representations of stochastic partial differential equations. We establish approximation error guarantees building on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-04-28 Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Ruiyi Yang