相关论文: Nowcasting in a Pandemic using Non-Parametric Mixe…

Frequentist and Bayesian methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimal properties. In real-life classification and regression problems, situations exist in which a model based on one of the methods is preferable based on some…

Machine learning and deep learning play vital roles in predicting diseases in the medical field. Machine learning algorithms are widely classified as supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. This paper contains a detailed…

Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such…

Bayesian non-parametric methods based on Dirichlet process mixtures have seen tremendous success in various domains and are appealing in being able to borrow information by clustering samples that share identical parameters. However, such…

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

The reduced-rank vector autoregressive (VAR) model can be interpreted as a supervised factor model, where two factor modelings are simultaneously applied to response and predictor spaces. This article introduces a new model, called vector…

We develop a semiparametric framework for inference on the mean response in missing-data settings using a corrected posterior distribution. Our approach is tailored to Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), which is a powerful…

This paper proposes a new Bayesian machine learning model that can be applied to large datasets arising in macroeconomics. Our framework sums over many simple two-component location mixtures. The transition between components is determined…

Undirected graphical models are applied in genomics, protein structure prediction, and neuroscience to identify sparse interactions that underlie discrete data. Although Bayesian methods for inference would be favorable in these contexts,…

We incorporate heteroskedasticity into Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) by modeling the log of the error variance parameter as a linear function of prespecified covariates. Under this scheme, the Gibbs sampling procedure for the…

In the dynamic landscape of continuous change, Machine Learning (ML) "nowcasting" models offer a distinct advantage for informed decision-making in both public and private sectors. This study introduces ML-based GDP growth projection models…

Nonstationary time series data exist in various scientific disciplines, including environmental science, biology, signal processing, econometrics, among others. Many Bayesian models have been developed to handle nonstationary time series.…

Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…

Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable non-parametric estimator exist for marginal structural models with…

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…

While artificial neural networks excel in unsupervised learning of non-sparse structure, classical statistical regression techniques offer better interpretability, in particular when sparseness is enforced by $\ell_1$ regularization,…

Rare variants are hypothesized to be largely responsible for heritability and susceptibility to disease in humans. So rare variants association studies hold promise for understanding disease. Conversely though, the rareness of the variants…

Epidemic models play a key role in understanding and responding to the emerging COVID-19 pandemic. Widely used compartmental models are static and are of limited use to evaluate intervention strategies with the emerging pandemic. Applying…

We investigate the predictive power of different machine learning algorithms to nowcast Madagascar's gross domestic product (GDP). We trained popular regression models, including linear regularized regression (Ridge, Lasso, Elastic-net),…

This paper investigates the integration of gradient boosted decision trees and varying coefficient models. We introduce the tree boosted varying coefficient framework which justifies the implementation of decision tree boosting as the…