相关论文: Predicting United States policy outcomes with Rand…

In this paper we examine the application of the random forest classifier for the all relevant feature selection problem. To this end we first examine two recently proposed all relevant feature selection algorithms, both being a random…

We evaluate the folk wisdom that algorithmic decision rules trained on data produced by biased human decision-makers necessarily reflect this bias. We consider a setting where training labels are only generated if a biased decision-maker…

Traditional crime prediction techniques are slow and inefficient when generating predictions as crime increases rapidly \cite{r15}. To enhance traditional crime prediction methods, a Long Short-Term Memory and Gated Recurrent Unit model was…

Machine learning is increasingly used to select which individuals receive limited-resource interventions in domains such as human services, education, development, and more. However, it is often not apparent what the right quantity is for…

This paper introduces distribution-based prediction, a novel approach to using Large Language Models (LLMs) as predictive tools by interpreting output token probabilities as distributions representing the models' learned representation of…

With the rising participation of the common mass in social media, it is increasingly common now for policymakers/journalists to create online polls on social media to understand the political leanings of people in specific locations. The…

Random forests have become an established tool for classification and regression, in particular in high-dimensional settings and in the presence of complex predictor-response relationships. For bounded outcome variables restricted to the…

Predictive algorithms inform consequential decisions in settings with selective labels: outcomes are observed only for units selected by past decision makers. This creates an identification problem under unobserved confounding -- when…

When using machine learning for imbalanced binary classification problems, it is common to subsample the majority class to create a (more) balanced training dataset. This biases the model's predictions because the model learns from data…

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a promising alternative to traditional survey methods, potentially enhancing efficiency and reducing costs. In this study, we use LLMs to create virtual populations that answer survey questions, enabling…

Regression trees are a popular machine learning algorithm that fit piecewise constant models by recursively partitioning the predictor space. This paper focuses on statistical inference for a data-dependent model obtained from a fitted…

Urban transportation and land use models have used theory and statistical modeling methods to develop model systems that are useful in planning applications. Machine learning methods have been considered too 'black box', lacking…

The ability to uncover preferences from choices is fundamental for both positive economics and welfare analysis. Overwhelming evidence shows that choice is stochastic, which has given rise to random utility models as the dominant paradigm…

Feature selection (FS) is assumed to improve predictive performance and identify meaningful features in high-dimensional datasets. Surprisingly, small random subsets of features (0.02-1%) match or outperform the predictive performance of…

The aim of this paper is the analysis and selection of stock trading systems that combine different models with data of different nature, such as financial and microeconomic information. Specifically, based on previous work by the authors…

Recent work in large language modeling (LLMs) has used fine-tuning to align outputs with the preferences of a prototypical user. This work assumes that human preferences are static and homogeneous across individuals, so that aligning to a a…

Random Forests (RF) are among the most powerful and widely used predictive models for centralized tabular data, yet few methods exist to adapt them to the federated learning setting. Unlike most federated learning approaches, the…

We give examples of data-generating models under which Breiman's random forest may be extremely slow to converge to the optimal predictor or even fail to be consistent. The evidence provided for these properties is based on mostly intuitive…

A random forest is a popular tool for estimating probabilities in machine learning classification tasks. However, the means by which this is accomplished is unprincipled: one simply counts the fraction of trees in a forest that vote for a…

Interactive Recommender Systems (IRSs) have attracted a lot of attention, due to their ability to model interactive processes between users and recommender systems. Numerous approaches have adopted Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms, as…