相关论文: Uncertainty Estimates of Solar Wind Prediction usi…
Empirical solar wind speed models play an important role in enabling space weather forecasting with low computational cost. Among these, one model called WS model is based on the asymptotic expansion factor. However, it is known that it…
Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather, and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary…
Predictions of the solar wind at Earth are a central aspect of space weather prediction. The outcome of such a prediction, however, is highly sensitive to the method used for computing the magnetic field in the corona. We analyze the impact…
Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that…
The solar wind which arrives at any location in the solar system is, in principle, relatable to the outflow of solar plasma from a single source location. This source location, itself usually being part of a larger coronal hole, is…
Solar wind streams, acting as background, govern the propagation of space weather drivers in the heliosphere, which induce geomagnetic storm activities. Therefore, predictions of the solar wind parameters are the core of space weather…
Solar wind backmapping is a critical technique for analyzing the origin of the solar wind and space weather events by correlating in situ measurements with solar remote-sensing observations. This technique typically traces magnetic field…
For the past 30+ years, the magnetic expansion factor ($f_s$) has been used in empirical relationships to predict solar wind speed ($v_{obs}$) at 1 AU, based on an inverse relationship between these two quantities. Coronal unipolar…
It has long been known that the high-speed stream (HSS) peak velocity at Earth directly depends on the area of the coronal hole (CH) on the Sun. Different degrees of association between the two parameters have been shown by many authors. In…
The uncertainty of the energy generated by photovoltaic systems incurs an additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This investigation aims to decrease the additional cost by introducing…
Geometric modelling of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is a widely used tool for assessing their kinematic evolution. Furthermore, techniques based on geometric modelling, such as ELEvoHI, are being developed into forecast tools for space…
The modeling of the heliosphere requires continuous three-dimensional solar wind data. The in-situ out-of-ecliptic measurements are very rare, so that other methods of solar wind detection are needed. We use the remote-sensing data of the…
Decades of in-situ solar wind measurements have clearly established the variation of solar wind physical parameters. These variable parameters have been used to classify the solar wind magnetized plasma into different types leading to…
The growth of wind generation capacities in the past decades has shown that wind energy can contribute to the energy transition in many parts of the world. Being highly variable and complex to model, the quantification of the…
The solar wind, accelerated within the solar corona, sculpts the heliosphere and continuously interacts with planetary atmospheres. On Earth, high-speed solar-wind streams may lead to severe disruption of satellite operations and power…
The solar wind speed plays a key role in the transport of CME out of the Sun and ultimately determines the arrival time of CME-driven shocks in the heliosphere. Here, we develop an empirical model of the solar wind parameters at the inner…
Probabilistic forecasts of renewable energy production provide users with valuable information about the uncertainty associated with the expected generation. Current state-of-the-art forecasts for solar irradiance have focused on producing…
Coronal holes (CHs) are regions of open magnetic flux which are the source of high speed solar wind (HSSW) streams. To date, it is not clear which aspects of CHs are of most influence on the properties of the solar wind as it expands…
The ambient solar wind plays a significant role in propagating interplanetary coronal mass ejections and is an important driver of space weather geomagnetic storms. A computationally efficient and widely used method to predict the ambient…
Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and arrival speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, a comparison of the predicted arrival times and speeds for each CME based,…