相关论文: Uncertainty Estimates of Solar Wind Prediction usi…
Solar wind forecasting plays a crucial role in space weather prediction, yet significant uncertainties persist due to incomplete magnetic field observations of the Sun. Isolating the solar wind forecasting errors due to these effects is…
An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric…
High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element…
The solar wind, a stream of charged particles originating from the Sun and transcending interplanetary space, poses risks to technology and astronauts. In this work, we develop a prediction model to forecast the solar wind speed at the…
Magnetic flux synoptic charts are critical for reliable modeling of the corona and heliosphere. Until now, however, these charts were provided without any estimate of uncertainties. The uncertainties are due to instrumental noise in the…
Previous ambient solar wind (SW) validation studies have reported on discrepancies between modeled and observed SW conditions at L1. They indicated that a major source of discrepancies stems from how we model the solar corona. Thus,…
The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…
Solar wind back-mapping is a combination of ballistic mapping and magnetic mapping. By examining the different model ingredients that can affect the derived back-mapped position, we aim to provide a more precise estimate of the source…
To model the structure and dynamics of the heliosphere well enough for high-quality forecasting, it is essential to accurately estimate the global solar magnetic field used as inner boundary condition in solar wind models. However, our…
Knowledge about the background solar wind plays a crucial role in the framework of space weather forecasting. In-situ measurements of the background solar wind are only available for a few points in the heliosphere where spacecraft are…
Studying solar wind conditions is central to forecasting impact of space weather on Earth. Under the assumption that the structure of this wind is constant in time and corotates with the Sun, solar wind and thereby space weather forecasts…
Emanating from the base of the Sun's corona, the solar wind fills the interplanetary medium with a magnetized stream of charged particles whose interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere has space-weather consequences such as geomagnetic…
The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behaviour of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are…
Recently, we correlated the inferred structure of the solar chromospheric plasma topography with solar wind velocity and composition data measured at 1AU. We now offer a physical justification of these relationships and present initial…
We explore the capabilities of time-dependent (TD) magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind simulations with the coupled WSA model of the solar corona and GAMERA model of the inner heliosphere. We compare TD with steady state (SS) simulations…
Four decades have gone by since the discovery that the solar wind at 1 AU seems to exist in two relatively distinct states: slow and fast. There is still no universal agreement concerning the primary physical cause of this apparently…
We present an empirical model based on the visible area covered by coronal holes close to the central meridian in order to predict the solar wind speed at 1 AU with a lead time up to four days in advance with a 1hr time resolution. Linear…
Inspired by the concept of relativity of simultaneity used in the theory of special relativity, a new approach is proposed to simulate future solar wind conditions at any point in the inner solar system. An important distinctive feature of…
An accurate solar wind speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural…
The ambient solar wind flows and fields influence the complex propagation dynamics of coronal mass ejections in the interplanetary medium and play an essential role in shaping Earth's space weather environment. A critical scientific goal in…