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For sequentially observed functional data exhibiting multiple change points in the mean function, we establish consistency results for the estimated number and locations of the change points based on the norm of the functional CUSUM process…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-01-03 Gregory Rice , Chi Zhang

This paper addresses the problem of change-point detection on sequences of high-dimensional and heterogeneous observations, which also possess a periodic temporal structure. Due to the dimensionality problem, when the time between…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-03-25 Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , David Ramírez , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez

Generative, temporal network models play an important role in analyzing the dependence structure and evolution patterns of complex networks. Due to the complicated nature of real network data, it is often naive to assume that the underlying…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-15 Daniel Cirkovic , Tiandong Wang , Xianyang Zhang

In recent years, there has been an increasing demand on efficient algorithms for large scale change point detection problems. To this end, we propose seeded binary segmentation, an approach relying on a deterministic construction of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-13 Solt Kovács , Housen Li , Peter Bühlmann , Axel Munk

Large-scale sequential data is often exposed to some degree of inhomogeneity in the form of sudden changes in the parameters of the data-generating process. We consider the problem of detecting such structural changes in a high-dimensional…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-01-15 Florencia Leonardi , Peter Bühlmann

Change-point detection and locally stationary time series modeling are two major approaches for the analysis of non-stationary data. The former aims to identify stationary phases by detecting abrupt changes in the dynamics of a time series…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-16 Wai Leong Ng , Xinyi Tang , Mun Lau Cheung , Jiacheng Gao , Chun Yip Yau , Holger Dette

The extensive emergence of big data techniques has led to an increasing interest in the development of change-point detection algorithms that can perform well in a multivariate, possibly high-dimensional setting. In the current paper, we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-15 Andreas Anastasiou , Angelos Papanastasiou

In this article, we study sequential change-point methods for discretely observed generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with periodic drift. Two detection methods are proposed, and their respective performance is studied through…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-12-30 Yunhong Lyu , Bouchra R. Nasri , Bruno N. Rémillard

We introduce a new approach for decoupling trends (drift) and changepoints (shifts) in time series. Our locally adaptive model-based approach for robustly decoupling combines Bayesian trend filtering and machine learning based…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-09 Haoxuan Wu , Toryn L. J. Schafer , Sean Ryan , David S. Matteson

Changepoint detection is commonly formulated by minimizing the sum of in-sample losses to quantify the model's overall fit. However, for flexible modeling procedures -- especially those involving high-dimensional parameter spaces or…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-05 Chengde Qian , Guanghui Wang , Zhaojun Wang , Changliang Zou

Sequential (online) change-point detection involves continuously monitoring time-series data and triggering an alarm when shifts in the data distribution are detected. We propose an algorithm for real-time identification of alterations in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-16 Yuhan Tian , Abolfazl Safikhani

Change-point processes are one flexible approach to model long time series. We propose a method to uncover which model parameter truly vary when a change-point is detected. Given a set of breakpoints, we use a penalized likelihood approach…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-02-09 Arnaud Dufays , Aristide Houndetoungan , Alain Coën

Correlations between random variables play an important role in applications, e.g.\ in financial analysis. More precisely, accurate estimates of the correlation between financial returns are crucial in portfolio management. In particular,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-01-31 Pedro Galeano , Dominik Wied

We study change point detection and localization for univariate data in fully nonparametric settings in which, at each time point, we acquire an i.i.d. sample from an unknown distribution. We quantify the magnitude of the distributional…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-05-27 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu , Daren Wang , Alessandro Rinaldo

Sequential change point detection for multivariate autocorrelated data is a very common problem in practice. However, when the sensing resources are limited, only a subset of variables from the multivariate system can be observed at each…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-04-02 Haijie Xu , Xiaochen Xian , Chen Zhang , Kaibo Liu

Bifurcations mark qualitative changes of long-term behavior in dynamical systems and can often signal sudden ("hard") transitions or catastrophic events (divergences). Accurately locating them is critical not just for deeper understanding…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-18 Yorgos M. Psarellis , Themistoklis P. Sapsis , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

A common approach to detect multiple changepoints is to minimise a measure of data fit plus a penalty that is linear in the number of changepoints. This paper shows that the general finite sample behaviour of such a method can be related to…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-08-15 Chao Zheng , Idris A. Eckley , Paul Fearnhead

Structural breaks have been commonly seen in applications. Specifically for detection of change points in time, research gap still remains on the setting in ultra high dimension, where the covariates may bear spurious correlations. In this…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-10 Xin Liu , Liwen Zhang , Zhen Zhang

Changepoint analysis deals with unsupervised detection and/or estimation of time-points in time-series data, when the distribution generating the data changes. In this article, we consider \emph{offline} changepoint detection in the context…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2021-12-03 Avinandan Bose , Soumendu Sundar Mukherjee

The dynamic nature of many real-world systems can lead to temporal outcome model shifts, causing a deterioration in model accuracy and reliability over time. This requires change-point detection on the outcome models to guide model…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-13 Zhuofan Dong , Yiwen Huang , Yan Dong , Mengying Yan , Ziye Tian , Chuan Hong , Doudou Zhou , Molei Liu