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Statistical inference for a linear stochastic hyperbolic equation with two unknown parameters is studied. Based on observation of coordinates of the solution or their linear combination, minimum contrast estimators are introduced. Strong…

概率论 · 数学 2018-06-21 Josef Janák

In this paper, we consider the robust adaptive non parametric estimation problem for the drift coefficient in diffusion processes. An adaptive model selection procedure, based on the improved weighted least square estimates, is proposed.…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-09-24 Evgeny Pchelintsev , Svyatoslav Perelevskiy , Irina Makarova

In this paper, we present a theoretical and computational workflow for the non-parametric Bayesian inference of drift and diffusion functions of autonomous diffusion processes. We base the inference on the partial differential equations…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2024-11-05 Maximilian Kruse , Sebastian Krumscheid

Strongly consistent and asymptotic normal estimators of the Hurst index of a stochastic differential equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion are proposed. The estimators are based on discrete observations of the underlying process.

概率论 · 数学 2014-02-18 K. Kubilius , V. Skorniakov , D. Melichov

Mathematical models for complex systems are often accompanied with uncertainties. The goal of this paper is to extract a stochastic differential equation governing model with observation on stationary probability distributions. We develop a…

动力系统 · 数学 2023-04-05 Xiaoli Chen , Hui Wang , Jinqiao Duan

Timeseries generated from a dynamical source can often be modeled as sample paths of a stochastic differential equation (SDE). The timeseries thus reflects the motion of a particle which flows along the direction provided by a drift /…

动力系统 · 数学 2025-11-03 Suddhasattwa Das

Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2019-02-12 Nick James , Roman Marchant , Richard Gerlach , Sally Cripps

We introduce a location statistic for distributions on non-linear geometric spaces, the diffusion mean, serving as an extension and an alternative to the Fr\'echet mean. The diffusion mean arises as the generalization of Gaussian maximum…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-12-06 Benjamin Eltzner , Pernille Hansen , Stephan F. Huckemann , Stefan Sommer

We propose a new statistical observation scheme of diffusion processes named convolutional observation, where it is possible to deal with smoother observation than ordinary diffusion processes by considering convolution of diffusion…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-10-28 Shogo H Nakakita , Masayuki Uchida

In this paper, we investigate a deep learning method for predicting path-dependent processes based on discretely observed historical information. This method is implemented by considering the prediction as a nonparametric regression and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-08-20 Xudong Zheng , Yuecai Han

We study a least square-type estimator for an unknown parameter in the drift coefficient of a stochastic differential equation with additive fractional noise of Hurst parameter H>1/2. The estimator is based on discrete time observations of…

概率论 · 数学 2011-11-10 Andreas Neuenkirch , Samy Tindel

This paper studies a problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for a sequence of scaled counting processes whose weak limit is a Brownian motion with an unknown drift. The main result of the paper is that the limit of the posterior…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-03-19 Asaf Cohen

We study the first-passage time, the distribution of the maximum, and the absorption probability of fractional Brownian motion of Hurst parameter $H$ with both a linear and a non-linear drift. The latter appears naturally when applying…

统计力学 · 物理学 2020-08-12 Maxence Arutkin , Benjamin Walter , Kay Joerg Wiese

Strongly consistent and asymptotically normal estimators of the Hurst parameter of solutions of stochastic differential equations are proposed. The estimators are based on discrete observations of the underlying processes.

概率论 · 数学 2015-07-28 Kestutis Kubilius , Viktor Skorniakov

Diffusion models provide a principled framework for generative modeling via stochastic differential equations and time-reversed dynamics. Extending spectral diffusion approaches to spherical data, however, raises nontrivial geometric and…

概率论 · 数学 2026-01-29 Pierpaolo Brutti , Claudio Durastanti , Francesco Mari

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-03-18 Michael Vogt , Holger Dette

Drift diffusion models (DDMs) have found widespread use in computational neuroscience and other fields. They model evidence accumulation in simple decision tasks as a stochastic process drifting towards a decision barrier. In models where…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-12 Sicheng Liu , Alexander Fengler , Michael J. Frank , Matthew T. Harrison

We consider statistics for stochastic evolution equations in Hilbert space with emphasis on stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). We observe a solution process under additional measurement errors and want to estimate a real or…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-05-21 Gregor Pasemann , Markus Reiß

In this paper, we study central and non-central limit theorems for partial sum of functionals of general stationary Gaussian fields. We apply our result to study drift parameter estimation problems for some stochastic differential equations…

概率论 · 数学 2015-01-22 Khalifa Es-Sebaiy , Frederi G. Viens

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-04-03 Michael Vogt , Holger Dette