相关论文: Short-term forecasting of Amazon rainforest fires …
Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…
In this paper, we assess and develop a climate service focused on the production of seasonal predictions for summer wildfires in a Mediterranean region through a participatory approach with end-users. We start by building a data-driven…
Mesoscale forecasts are now routinely performed as elements of operational forecasts and their outputs do appear convincing. However, despite their realistic appearance at times the comparison to observations is less favorable. At the grid…
Effective management of recreational fisheries requires accurate forecasting of future harvests and real-time monitoring of ongoing harvests. Traditional methods that rely on historical catch data to predict short-term harvests can be…
Energy production using renewable sources exhibits inherent uncertainties due to their intermittent nature. Nevertheless, the unified European energy market promotes the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) by the…
Efficient irrigation management is crucial to agriculture, forestry and horticulture, especially under climate change. Developments in novel sensors and Internet of Things technology provide an opportunity to carry out real-time monitoring…
Ensembles of climate models are commonly used to improve climate predictions and assess the uncertainties associated with them. Weighting the models according to their performances holds the promise of further improving their predictions.…
Poor air quality can have a significant impact on human health. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) air quality forecasting guidance is challenged by the increasing presence of extreme air quality events due to…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…
This paper examines the effectiveness of several forecasting methods for predicting inflation, focusing on aggregating disaggregated forecasts - also known in the literature as the bottom-up approach. Taking the Brazilian case as an…
Past research has shown that multiple climate subsystems might undergo abrupt shifts, such as the Arctic Winter sea ice or the Amazon rainforest, but there are large uncertainties regarding their timing and spatial extent. In this study we…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
Accurate traffic flow forecasting is essential for intelligent transportation systems and urban traffic management. However, single model approaches often fail to capture the complex, nonlinear, and multi scale temporal patterns in traffic…
This study investigates temporal variability in U.S. climate using harmonic decomposition techniques, specifically Fourier and wavelet transforms. Monthly temperature, precipitation, and drought index data from the National Oceanic and…
Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting is essential for efficient power grid management, resource allocation, and market stability. Traditional time-series models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear dependencies and…
This paper presents a novel learning based framework for predicting power outages caused by extreme events. The proposed approach targets low-probability high-consequence outage scenarios and leverages a comprehensive set of features…
Currently all major meteorological centres generate ensemble forecasts using their operational ensemble prediction systems; however, it is a general problem that the spread of the ensemble is too small, resulting in underdispersive…
Forecasting bushfire spread is an important element in fire prevention and response efforts. Empirical observations of bushfire spread can be used to estimate fire response under certain conditions. These observations form rate-of-spread…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…
In this paper, we consider the task of predicting travel times between two arbitrary points in an urban scenario. We view this problem from two temporal perspectives: long-term forecasting with a horizon of several days and short-term…