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Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods can be used to sample from posterior distributions when the likelihood function is unavailable or intractable, as is often the case in biological systems. ABC methods suffer from inefficient…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-12-03 Charlie Rogers-Smith , Henri Pesonen , Samuel Kaski

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-06-08 Brendan D. Tracey , David H. Wolpert

We introduce a novel way to combine boosting with Gaussian process and mixed effects models. This allows for relaxing, first, the zero or linearity assumption for the prior mean function in Gaussian process and grouped random effects models…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-06 Fabio Sigrist

Rejection Sampling is a fundamental Monte-Carlo method. It is used to sample from distributions admitting a probability density function which can be evaluated exactly at any given point, albeit at a high computational cost. However,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-23 Juliette Achdou , Joseph C. Lam , Alexandra Carpentier , Gilles Blanchard

Any data modeling exercise has two main components: parameter estimation and model selection. The latter will be the topic of this lecture note. More concretely we will introduce several Monte-Carlo sampling-based rules for model selection…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-28 Petre Stoica , Xiaolei Shang , Yuanbo Cheng

Monte Carlo integration is a commonly used technique to compute intractable integrals and is typically thought to perform poorly for very high-dimensional integrals. To show that this is not always the case, we examine Monte Carlo…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-05-26 Yanbo Tang

Bayesian optimization in large unstructured discrete spaces is often hindered by the computational cost of maximizing acquisition functions due to the absence of gradients. We propose a scalable alternative based on Thompson sampling that…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-02 Nicolas Menet , Aleksandar Terzić , Michael Hersche , Andreas Krause , Abbas Rahimi

Stochastic processes are a flexible and widely used family of models for statistical modeling. While stochastic processes offer attractive properties such as inclusion of uncertainty properties, their inference is typically intractable,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-10 Teemu Härkönen , Simo Särkkä

This paper constructs an ensemble-based sampling smoother for four-dimensional data assimilation using a Hybrid/Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo approach. The smoother samples efficiently from the posterior probability density of the solution at the…

数值分析 · 计算机科学 2015-05-19 Ahmed Attia , Vishwas Rao , Adrian Sandu

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely used for Bayesian inference in models of complex systems. Performance, however, is often unsatisfactory in models with many latent variables due to so-called poor mixing, necessitating development…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-10-25 C. M. Pooley , S. C. Bishop , A. Doeschl-Wilson , G. Marion

Gaussian Boson Sampling (GBS) have shown advantages over classical methods for performing some specific sampling tasks. To fully harness the computational power of GBS, there has been great interest in identifying their practical…

量子物理 · 物理学 2025-02-28 Jørgen Ellegaard Andersen , Shan Shan

We study probit regression from a Bayesian perspective and give an alternative form for the posterior distribution when the prior distribution for the regression parameters is the uniform distribution. This new form allows simple Monte…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-03-15 Yuzo Maruyama , William E. Strawderman

Bayesian methods are commonly applied to solve image analysis problems such as noise-reduction, feature enhancement and object detection. A primary limitation of these approaches is the computational complexity due to the interdependence of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-01 Konstantinos Bakas , John Kornak , Hernando Ombao

It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-06-17 Leo L. Duan , Anirban Bhattacharya

Inferential models (IMs) offer prior-free, Bayesian-like posterior degrees of belief designed for statistical inference, which feature a frequentist-like calibration property that ensures reliability of said inferences. The catch is that…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-07-09 Ryan Martin

The computational complexity of MCMC methods for the exploration of complex probability measures is a challenging and important problem. A challenge of particular importance arises in Bayesian inverse problems where the target distribution…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-10-23 Sebastian J. Vollmer

Recent work has suggested using Monte Carlo methods based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) to sample from target distributions of interest. PDMPs are non-reversible continuous-time processes endowed with momentum, and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-06-28 Paul Fearnhead , Sebastiano Grazzi , Chris Nemeth , Gareth O. Roberts

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms were originally designed for estimating intractable conditional expectations within state-space models, but are now routinely used to generate approximate samples in the context of general-purpose…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-05-11 Jonathan H. Huggins , Daniel M. Roy

We construct a new framework for accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo in posterior sampling problems where standard methods are limited by the computational cost of the likelihood, or of numerical models embedded therein. Our approach…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-01-06 Patrick R. Conrad , Youssef M. Marzouk , Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

Likelihood-free methods, such as approximate Bayesian computation, are powerful tools for practical inference problems with intractable likelihood functions. Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo variants of approximate…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-02-26 David J. Warne , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson