相关论文: Cross-temporal forecast reconciliation: Optimal co…

We present new Bayesian methodology for consumer sales forecasting. With a focus on multi-step ahead forecasting of daily sales of many supermarket items, we adapt dynamic count mixture models to forecast individual customer transactions,…

Recent advances in deep forecasting models have achieved remarkable performance, yet most approaches still struggle to provide both accurate predictions and interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. This paper proposes CaReTS, a novel…

Seasonal time series Forecasting remains a challenging problem due to the long-term dependency from seasonality. In this paper, we propose a two-stage framework to forecast univariate seasonal time series. The first stage explicitly learns…

Although by now the ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting is the most advanced approach to weather prediction, ensemble forecasts still might suffer from lack of calibration and/or display systematic bias, thus require some…

Consider two forecasters, each making a single prediction for a sequence of events over time. We ask a relatively basic question: how might we compare these forecasters, either online or post-hoc, while avoiding unverifiable assumptions on…

An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…

Constructing prediction intervals for time series forecasting is challenging, particularly when practitioners rely solely on point forecasts. While previous research has focused on creating increasingly efficient intervals, we argue that…

Time series forecasting presents significant challenges in real-world applications across various domains. Building upon the decomposition of the time series, we enhance the architecture of machine learning models for better multivariate…

Long range forecasts are the starting point of many decision support systems that need to draw inference from high-level aggregate patterns on forecasted values. State of the art time-series forecasting methods are either subject to concept…

Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in…

Numerical weather forecasts can exhibit systematic errors due to simplifying model assumptions and computational approximations. Statistical postprocessing is a statistical approach to correcting such biases. A statistical postprocessing…

Time series in energy systems, such as solar irradiance, wind speed, or electrical load, are characterized by strong diurnal and seasonal periodicities. Accurate forecasting requires accounting for time varying statistical properties that…

Value-oriented forecasts for two-stage power system operational problems have been demonstrated to reduce cost, but prove to be computationally challenging for large-scale systems because the underlying optimization problem must be…

Multivariate time series forecasting involves two qualitatively distinct factors: (i) stable within-series autoregressive (AR) dynamics, and (ii) intermittent cross-dimension interactions that can become spurious over long horizons. We…

Given a set of synchronous time series, each associated with a sensor-point in space and characterized by inter-series relationships, the problem of spatiotemporal forecasting consists of predicting future observations for each point.…

A novel extrapolation method is proposed for longitudinal forecasting. A hierarchical Gaussian process model is used to combine nonlinear population change and individual memory of the past to make prediction. The prediction error is…

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…

Bayesian aggregation lets election forecasters combine diverse sources of information, such as state polls and economic and political indicators: as in our collaboration with The Economist magazine. However, the demands of real-time…

We consider the problem of forecasting multiple values of the future of a vector time series, using some past values. This problem, and related ones such as one-step-ahead prediction, have a very long history, and there are a number of…

Time series forecasting has traditionally focused on univariate and multivariate numerical data, often overlooking the benefits of incorporating multimodal information, particularly textual data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework…