相关论文: Cross-temporal forecast reconciliation: Optimal co…

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) temperature forecasts, spanning several weeks to a few months, are critically needed in agriculture practice, energy planning, and extreme-weather induced risk management, yet their reliability varies…

In this paper, we investigate the reconstruction of time-correlated sources in a point-to-point communications scenario comprising an energy-harvesting sensor and a Fusion Center (FC). Our goal is to minimize the average distortion in the…

Asynchronous Bayesian optimization is a recently implemented technique that allows for parallel operation of experimental systems and disjointed workflows. Contrasting with serial Bayesian optimization which individually selects experiments…

The predictive advantage of combining several different predictive models is widely accepted. Particularly in time series forecasting problems, this combination is often dynamic to cope with potential non-stationary sources of variation…

In meteorology, engineering and computer sciences, data assimilation is routinely employed as the optimal way to combine noisy observations with prior model information for obtaining better estimates of a state, and thus better forecasts,…

Ex-post harmonisation is one of many data preprocessing processes used to combine the increasingly vast and diverse sources of data available for research and analysis. Documenting provenance and ensuring the quality of multi-source…

Probabilistic hierarchical time-series forecasting is an important variant of time-series forecasting, where the goal is to model and forecast multivariate time-series that have underlying hierarchical relations. Most methods focus on point…

Probabilistic hierarchical time-series forecasting is an important variant of time-series forecasting, where the goal is to model and forecast multivariate time-series that have underlying hierarchical relations. Most methods focus on point…

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to…

Causal reversibility blends reversibility and causality for concurrent systems. It indicates that an action can be undone provided that all of its consequences have been undone already, thus making it possible to bring the system back to a…

A well known problem with Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) prediction is that a prediction strategy proved to be the best for some testing time span and prediction length may not remain the same for other time intervals. In this paper, we…

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

At present, state-of-the-art forecasting models are short of the ability to capture spatio-temporal dependency and synthesize global information at the stage of learning. To address this issue, in this paper, through the adaptive fuzzified…

Regional solar power forecasting, which involves predicting the total power generation from all rooftop photovoltaic systems in a region holds significant importance for various stakeholders in the energy sector. However, the vast amount of…

Data reconciliation in general, and filesystem synchronization in particular, lacks rigorous theoretical foundation. This paper presents, for the first time, a complete analysis of synchronization for two replicas of a theoretical…

Forecast combination involves using multiple forecasts to create a single, more accurate prediction. Recently, feature-based forecasting has been employed to either select the most appropriate forecasting models or to optimize the weights…

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes,…

The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the time series forecasting problem based on similarity of trajectories. Various methodologies are introduced and studied, and detailed discussions on hyperparameter optimization, outlier…

In order to enable the transition towards renewable energy sources, probabilistic energy forecasting is of critical importance for incorporating volatile power sources such as solar energy into the electrical grid. Solar energy forecasting…

We compare two recently proposed methods that combine ideas from conformal inference and quantile regression to produce locally adaptive and marginally valid prediction intervals under sample exchangeability (Romano et al., 2019;…