相关论文: Cross-temporal forecast reconciliation: Optimal co…
Forecast reconciliation is a post-forecasting process that involves transforming a set of incoherent forecasts into coherent forecasts which satisfy a given set of linear constraints for a multivariate time series. In this paper we extend…
Cross-temporal forecast reconciliation aims to ensure consistency across forecasts made at different temporal and cross-sectional levels. We explore the relationships between sequential, iterative, and optimal combination approaches, and…
Forecast reconciliation is the post-forecasting process aimed to revise a set of incoherent base forecasts into coherent forecasts in line with given data structures. Most of the point and probabilistic regression-based forecast…
In recent works by Yang et al. (2017a,b), and Yagli et al. (2019), geographical, temporal, and sequential deterministic reconciliation of hierarchical photovoltaic (PV) power generation have been considered for a simulated PV dataset in…
This paper focuses on forecasting hierarchical time-series data, where each higher-level observation equals the sum of its corresponding lower-level time series. In such contexts, the forecast values should be coherent, meaning that the…
In a recent paper, while elucidating the links between forecast combination and cross-sectional forecast reconciliation, Hollyman et al. (2021) have proposed a forecast combination-based approach to the reconciliation of a simple hierarchy.…
Forecast reconciliation has become a prominent topic in recent forecasting literature, with a primary distinction made between cross-sectional and temporal hierarchies. This work focuses on temporal hierarchies, such as aggregating monthly…
We encounter time series data in many domains such as finance, physics, business, and weather. One of the main tasks of time series analysis, one that helps to take informed decisions under uncertainty, is forecasting. Time series are often…
A novel framework for hierarchical forecast updating is presented, addressing a critical gap in the forecasting literature. By assuming a temporal hierarchy structure, the innovative approach extends hierarchical forecast reconciliation to…
Some time series can be hierarchically organized into levels based on certain characteristics, such as geography or other attributes of interest. These series are referred to as hierarchical time series. Typically, forecasts are generated…
Hierarchical time series are common in several applied fields. The forecasts for these time series are required to be coherent, that is, to satisfy the constraints given by the hierarchy. The most popular technique to enforce coherence is…
The practical importance of coherent forecasts in hierarchical forecasting has inspired many studies on forecast reconciliation. Under this approach, so-called base forecasts are produced for every series in the hierarchy and are…
Linearly constrained multiple time series may be encountered in many practical contexts, such as the National Accounts (e.g., GDP disaggregated by Income, Expenditure and Output), and multilevel frameworks where the variables are organized…
Wind power forecasting is essential for managing daily operations at wind farms and enabling market operators to manage power uncertainty effectively in demand planning. This paper explores advanced cross-temporal forecasting models and…
Aggregation constraints, arising from geographical or sectoral division, frequently emerge in a large set of time series. Coherent forecasts of these constrained series are anticipated to conform to their hierarchical structure organized by…
In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time series. When dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from generating accurate forecasts, one needs to select a suitable method for producing…
New methods are proposed for adjusting probabilistic forecasts to ensure coherence with the aggregation constraints inherent in temporal hierarchies. The different approaches nested within this framework include methods that exploit…
Platform businesses operate on a digital core and their decision making requires high-dimensional accurate forecast streams at different levels of cross-sectional (e.g., geographical regions) and temporal aggregation (e.g., minutes to…
We introduce a dynamic approach to probabilistic forecast reconciliation at scale. Our model differs from the existing literature in this area in several important ways. Firstly we explicitly allow the weights allocated to the base…
Forecast reconciliation has attracted significant research interest in recent years, with most studies taking the hierarchy of time series as given. We extend existing work that uses time series clustering to construct hierarchies, with the…