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Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-18 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Understanding the causal effects of text on downstream outcomes is a central task in many applications. Estimating such effects requires researchers to run controlled experiments that systematically vary textual features. While large…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-02-18 Omri Feldman , Amar Venugopal , Jann Spiess , Amir Feder

We study estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE) from a single network in observational settings with interference. The weak cross-unit dependence is modeled via an endogenous peer-effect (network autoregressive) term that induces…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-02 Yong Wu , Shuyuan Wu , Xinwei Sun , Xuening Zhu

Continuous-time reinforcement learning (CTRL) provides a natural framework for sequential decision-making in dynamic environments where interactions evolve continuously over time. While CTRL has shown growing empirical success, its ability…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-04 Runze Zhao , Yue Yu , Ruhan Wang , Chunfeng Huang , Dongruo Zhou

Causal inference methods are widely applied in various decision-making domains such as precision medicine, optimal policy and economics. Central to these applications is the treatment effect estimation of intervention strategies. Current…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2021-05-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

To promote precision medicine, individualized treatment regimes (ITRs) are crucial for optimizing the expected clinical outcome based on patient-specific characteristics. However, existing ITR research has primarily focused on scenarios…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-20 Chang Wang , Lu Wang

In this paper, we develop a multiply robust inference procedure of the average treatment effect (ATE) for data with high-dimensional covariates. We consider the case where it is difficult to correctly specify a single parametric model for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-03 Xintao Xia , Yumou Qiu

We focus on the problem of generalizing a causal effect estimated on a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to a target population described by a set of covariates from observational data. Available methods such as inverse propensity sampling…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-27 Imke Mayer , Julie Josse , Traumabase Group

There is a growing literature on design-based methods to estimate average treatment effects for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using the underpinnings of experiments. In this article, we build on these methods to consider design-based…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-17 Peter Z Schochet

Adjustment for ``super'' or ``prognostic'' composite covariates has become more popular in randomized trials recently. These prognostic covariates are often constructed from historical data by fitting a predictive model of the outcome on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-06 Emilie Højbjerre-Frandsen , Alejandro Schuler

Consider a setting with $N$ independent individuals, each with an unknown parameter, $p_i \in [0, 1]$ drawn from some unknown distribution $P^\star$. After observing the outcomes of $t$ independent Bernoulli trials, i.e., $X_i \sim…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-02-13 Ramya Korlakai Vinayak , Weihao Kong , Gregory Valiant , Sham M. Kakade

In recent years there has been an increased interest in statistical analysis of data with multiple types of relations among a set of entities. Such multi-relational data can be represented as multi-layer graphs where the set of vertices…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-04-27 Subhadeep Paul , Yuguo Chen

Rare disease trials face unique statistical challenges due to limited patient populations and heterogeneous clinical manifestations among patients. Multiple endpoints are often necessary to comprehensively capture treatment benefits. A…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-05 Tianyue Zhou , Susan Gruber , Hana Lee , Wonyul Lee , Lei Nie , Mark van der Laan

We study treatment effect modifiers for causal analysis in a social network, where neighbors' characteristics or network structure may affect the outcome of a unit, and the goal is to identify sub-populations with varying treatment effects…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2021-11-09 Amir Gilad , Harsh Parikh , Sudeepa Roy , Babak Salimi

We introduce Matched Machine Learning, a framework that combines the flexibility of machine learning black boxes with the interpretability of matching, a longstanding tool in observational causal inference. Interpretability is paramount in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-04-05 Marco Morucci , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

Subgroup analysis of treatment effects plays an important role in applications from medicine to public policy to recommender systems. It allows physicians (for example) to identify groups of patients for whom a given drug or treatment is…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-10-20 Hyun-Suk Lee , Yao Zhang , William Zame , Cong Shen , Jang-Won Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

The missing data problem has been broadly studied in the last few decades and has various applications in different areas such as statistics or bioinformatics. Even though many methods have been developed to tackle this challenge, most of…

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-20 J Hoogland , J IntHout , M Belias , MM Rovers , RD Riley , FE Harrell , KGM Moons , TPA Debray , JB Reitsma

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly utilized as proxies for computational social analysis; yet, their ability to faithfully represent the "thick descriptions" (Geertz, 1973) of human communities remains a critical challenge.…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-05-28 Nuan Wen , Xuezhe Ma

Routinely collected data from electronic health records (EHR) provide opportunities to study effects of longitudinal treatment strategies in real-world clinical settings. A challenge presented by EHR data is that frequency of covariate…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Leah Pirondini , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Edward Palmer , Ruth H. Keogh