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Mean field variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, it is well known that a major failing of MFVB is that it underestimates the uncertainty of model…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-12-24 Ryan Giordano , Tamara Broderick , Michael Jordan

The spatial error model (SEM) is a type of simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model for analysing spatially correlated data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the most widely used Bayesian methods for estimating SEM, but it has…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-14 Anjana Wijayawardhana , David Gunawan , Thomas Suesse

Mean field variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, it is well known that a major failing of MFVB is that it underestimates the uncertainty of model…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-02-27 Ryan Giordano , Tamara Broderick

This article focuses on measurement error in covariates in regression analyses in which the aim is to estimate the association between one or more covariates and an outcome, adjusting for confounding. Error in covariate measurements, if…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-10-16 Ruth H. Keogh , Jonathan W. Bartlett

Mean-field Variational Bayes (MFVB) is an approximate Bayesian posterior inference technique that is increasingly popular due to its fast runtimes on large-scale datasets. However, even when MFVB provides accurate posterior means for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-10-18 Ryan Giordano , Tamara Broderick , Michael I. Jordan

Variational Bayes (VB) is a recent approximate method for Bayesian inference. It has the merit of being a fast and scalable alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) but its approximation error is often unknown. In this paper, we…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-03-05 Reza Hajargasht

Uncertainty is an inherent characteristic of biological and geospatial data which is almost made by measurement error in the observed values of the quantity of interest. Ignoring measurement error can lead to biased estimates and inflated…

应用统计 · 统计学 2018-11-16 Vahid Tadayon

Mean Field Variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, it is well known that a major failing of MFVB is its (sometimes severe) underestimates of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-12-10 Ryan Giordano , Tamara Broderick

There is a lack of simple and scalable algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty through posterior and predictive distributions, but it is difficult to rapidly estimate summaries of these…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-12-28 Cheng Li , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

Modern computational advances have enabled easy parallel implementations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, almost all work in estimating the variance of Monte Carlo averages, including the efficient batch means (BM) estimator,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-23 Kushagra Gupta , Dootika Vats

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

数值分析 · 数学 2025-08-19 Pieter Vanmechelen , Geert Lombaert , Giovanni Samaey

Structural equation models are commonly used to capture the relationship between sets of observed and unobservable variables. Traditionally these models are fitted using frequentist approaches but recently researchers and practitioners have…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-22 Khue-Dung Dang , Luca Maestrini

Missing values in covariates due to censoring by signal interference or lack of sensitivity in the measuring devices are common in industrial problems. We propose a full Bayesian solution to the prediction problem with an efficient Markov…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-21 Caroline Svahn , Mattias Villani

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-08-13 Daniel W. Heck , Antony M. Overstall , Quentin F. Gronau , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

In this paper we consider the modeling of measurement error for fund returns data. In particular, given access to a time-series of discretely observed log-returns and the associated maximum over the observation period, we develop a…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-08-15 Ajay Jasra , Mohamed Maama , Aleksandar Mijatović

The Mean Field Variational Bayes (MFVB) method is one of the most computationally efficient techniques for Bayesian inference. However, its use has been restricted to models with conjugate priors or those that require analytical…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-05-18 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Paco Tseng , Robert Kohn

The flexibility of the Bayesian approach to account for covariates with measurement error is combined with semiparametric regression models for a class of continuous, discrete and mixed univariate response distributions with potentially all…

Regression models that ignore measurement error in predictors may produce highly biased estimates leading to erroneous inferences. It is well known that it is extremely difficult to take measurement error into account in Gaussian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-03 Mohammad W. Hattab , David Ruppert

In statistical analysis, Monte Carlo (MC) stands as a classical numerical integration method. When encountering challenging sample problem, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a commonly employed method. However, the MCMC estimator is biased…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-11-05 Jiarui Du , Zhijian He

In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem associated to partially-observed time changed SDEs, with observations that are given at discrete times. In particular we consider both likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We develop…

数值分析 · 数学 2026-05-12 Ke Zhao , Ajay Jasra
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