相关论文: Evidence for increasing frequency of extreme coast…
Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice…
We propose Echo State Networks (ESNs) to predict the statistics of extreme events in a turbulent flow. We train the ESNs on small datasets that lack information about the extreme events. We asses whether the networks are able to extrapolate…
Climate change and sea-level rise (SLR) pose escalating threats to coastal cities, intensifying the need for efficient and accurate methods to predict potential flood hazards. Traditional physics-based hydrodynamic simulators, although…
Then detection and identification of extreme weather events in large-scale climate simulations is an important problem for risk management, informing governmental policy decisions and advancing our basic understanding of the climate system.…
Studies agree on a significant global mean sea level rise in the 20th century and its recent 21st century acceleration in the satellite record. At regional scale, the evolution of sea level probability distributions is often assumed to be…
Uncertainty quantification is crucial to assess prediction quality of a machine learning model. In the case of Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), most methods proposed in the literature make strong assumptions on the data, ignore the…
Sea Level Rise (SLR) is one of the most pressing challenges of climate change and has drawn noticeable research interest over the past few decades. Factors induced by global climate change such as temperature increase, have resulted in both…
Future sea-level rise poses nontrivial risks for many coastal communities. Managing these risks often relies on consensus projections like those provided by the IPCC. Yet, there is a growing awareness that the surrounding uncertainties may…
Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods are…
The aggravating effects of climate change and the growing population in hurricane-prone areas escalate the challenges in large-scale hurricane evacuations. While hurricane preparedness and response strategies vastly rely on the accuracy and…
Flood quantile estimation is of great importance for many engineering studies and policy decisions. However, practitioners must often deal with small data available. Thus, the information must be used optimally. In the last decades, to…
Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…
The increasing extreme weather events poses unprecedented challenges on power system operation because of their uncertain and sequential impacts on power systems. This paper proposes the concept of an extended steady-state security region…
Causal dependence modelling of multivariate extremes is intended to improve our understanding of the relationships amongst variables associated with rare events. Regular variation provides a standard framework in the study of extremes. This…
We propose and compare methods for the analysis of extreme events in complex systems governed by PDEs that involve random parameters, in situations where we are interested in quantifying the probability that a scalar function of the…
The areal modeling of the extremes of a natural process such as rainfall or temperature is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extreme areal rainfall is crucial in flood protection. This article reviews recent…
Accurate information on waves and storm surges is essential to understand coastal hazards that are expected to increase in view of global warming and rising sea levels. Despite the recent advancement in development and application of…
Saltwater intrusion is a critical challenge to coastal ecosystems, impacting freshwater resources, biogeochemical cycles, and habitat stability. While relevant studies often focus on the long-term trends of salinity, its episodic…
Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…
Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…