相关论文: The Full Bayesian Significance Test and the e-valu…

Null hypothesis significance testing remains popular despite decades of concern about misuse and misinterpretation. We believe that much of the problem is due to language: significance testing has little to do with other meanings of the…

We present the fundamental ideas underlying statistical hypothesis testing using the frequentist framework. We begin with a simple example that builds up the one-sample t-test from the beginning, explaining important concepts such as the…

In this paper, we propose an explicit closed-form Bayes factor for the problem of two-sample hypothesis testing. The proposed approach can be regarded as a Bayesian version of the pooled-variance t-statistic and has various appealing…

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

Hypothesis testing and model choice are quintessential questions for statistical inference and while the Bayesian paradigm seems ideally suited for answering these questions, it faces difficulties of its own ranging from prior modelling to…

E-values have gained attention as potential alternatives to p-values as measures of uncertainty, significance and evidence. In brief, e-values are realized by random variables with expectation at most one under the null; examples include…

I present a critique of the methods used in a typical paper. This leads to three broad conclusions about the conventional use of statistical methods. First, results are often reported in an unnecessarily obscure manner. Second, the null…

Compared to p-values, e-values provably guarantee safe, valid inference. If the goal is to test multiple hypotheses simultaneously, one can construct e-values for each individual test and then use the recently developed e-BH procedure to…

Most existing methods for testing equality of means of functional data from multiple populations rely on assumptions of equal covariance and/or Gaussianity. In this work we provide a new testing method based on a statistic that is…

Equivalence testing for scalar data has been well addressed in the literature, however, the same cannot be said for functional data. The resultant complexity from maintaining the functional structure of the data, rather than using a scalar…

Recently, Sturma, Drton, and Leung proposed a general-purpose stochastic method for hypothesis testing in models defined by polynomial equality and inequality constraints. Notably, the method remains theoretically valid even near irregular…

Suppose you are told that taking a statin will reduce your risk of a heart attack or stroke by 3% in the next ten years, or that women have better emotional intelligence than men. You may wonder how accurate the 3% is, or how confident we…

Partial correlation coefficients are widely applied in the social sciences to evaluate the relationship between two variables after accounting for the influence of others. In this article, we present Bayes Factor Functions (BFFs) for…

The e-value is swiftly rising in prominence in many applications of hypothesis testing and multiple testing, yet its relationship to classical testing theory remains elusive. We unify e-values and classical testing into a single 'continuous…

One of the main problems of importance sampling in Bayesian networks is representation of the importance function, which should ideally be as close as possible to the posterior joint distribution. Typically, we represent an importance…

Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…

Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…

Which type of statistical uncertainty -- statistical (in)significance with a p-value, or a Bayesian probability -- enables people to see the continuous nature of uncertainty more clearly in a policymaking context? An original survey…

Forecasting and forecast evaluation are inherently sequential tasks. Predictions are often issued on a regular basis, such as every hour, day, or month, and their quality is monitored continuously. However, the classical statistical tools…

Bayes factors represent the ratio of probabilities assigned to data by competing scientific hypotheses. Drawbacks of Bayes factors are their dependence on prior specifications that define null and alternative hypotheses and difficulties…