相关论文: varstan: An R package for Bayesian analysis of str…

Multivariate GARCH models are important tools to describe the dynamics of multivariate times series of financial returns. Nevertheless, these models have been much less used in practice due to the lack of reliable software. This paper…

The paper introduces a general framework for statistical analysis of functional time series from a Bayesian perspective. The proposed approach, based on an extension of the popular dynamic linear model to Banach-space valued observations…

Using ensemble methods for regression has been a large success in obtaining high-accuracy prediction. Examples are Bagging, Random forest, Boosting, BART (Bayesian additive regression tree), and their variants. In this paper, we propose a…

We use Bayesian model selection paradigms, such as group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator priors, to facilitate generalized additive model selection. Our approach allows for the effects of continuous predictors to be…

Modern regression applications can involve hundreds or thousands of variables which motivates the use of variable selection methods. Bayesian variable selection defines a posterior distribution on the possible subsets of the variables…

Bayesian statistics is an integral part of contemporary applied science. bayesics provides a single framework, unified in syntax and output, for performing the most commonly used statistical procedures, ranging from one- and two-sample…

The prediction interval is gaining prominence in meta-analysis as it enables the assessment of uncertainties in treatment effects and heterogeneity between studies. However, coverage probabilities of the current standard method for…

Statistical procedures such as Bayes factor model selection and Bayesian model averaging require the computation of normalizing constants (e.g., marginal likelihoods). These normalizing constants are notoriously difficult to obtain, as they…

Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is a popular method for estimating the parameter posterior distribution for complex statistical models and stochastic processes that possess a computationally intractable likelihood function. Instead of…

Bayesian aggregation lets election forecasters combine diverse sources of information, such as state polls and economic and political indicators: as in our collaboration with The Economist magazine. However, the demands of real-time…

It can be important in Bayesian analyses of complex models to construct informative prior distributions which reflect knowledge external to the data at hand. Nevertheless, how much prior information an analyst can elicit from an expert will…

Priors allow us to robustify inference and to incorporate expert knowledge in Bayesian hierarchical models. This is particularly important when there are random effects that are hard to identify based on observed data. The challenge lies in…

dynamite is an R package for Bayesian inference of intensive panel (time series) data comprising multiple measurements per multiple individuals measured in time. The package supports joint modeling of multiple response variables,…

Two fundamental research tasks in science and engineering are forward predictions and data inversion. This article introduces a recent R package RobustCalibration for Bayesian data inversion and model calibration by experiments and field…

One key task in environmental science is to map environmental variables continuously in space or even in space and time. Machine learning algorithms are frequently used to learn from local field observations to make spatial predictions by…

Variational inference is a scalable technique for approximate Bayesian inference. Deriving variational inference algorithms requires tedious model-specific calculations; this makes it difficult to automate. We propose an automatic…

The package provides multivariate time series models for structural analysis, allowing one to extract latent signals such as trends or seasonality. Models are fitted using maximum likelihood estimation, allowing for non-stationarity, fixed…

Modern variable selection procedures make use of penalization methods to execute simultaneous model selection and estimation. A popular method is the LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), the use of which requires…

Ranking data are frequently obtained nowadays but there are still scarce methods for treating these data when temporally observed. The present paper contributes to this topic by proposing and developing novel models for handling time series…

This is a vignette for the R package eggCounts version 2.0. The package implements a suite of Bayesian hierarchical models dealing with faecal egg count reductions. The models are designed for a variety of practical situations, including…