相关论文: A Bayesian - Deep Learning model for estimating Co…

A semiempirical model, based in the logistic map, has been succesfully applied to forecast important quantities along the several phases of the outbreak of the covid-19 for different countries. This paper shows how the model was calibrated…

We propose a robust parameter estimation method for dynamical systems based on Statistical Learning techniques which aims to estimate a set of parameters that well fit the dynamics in order to obtain robust evidences about the qualitative…

We introduce a Bayesian sequential data assimilation method for COVID-19 forecasting. It is assumed that suitable transmission, epidemic and observation models are available and previously validated and the transmission and epidemic models…

We develop a Bayesian inference framework to quantify uncertainties in epidemiological models. We use SEIJR and SIJR models involving populations of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, dead and recovered individuals to infer from…

SARS-CoV2, which causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is continuing to spread globally and has become a pandemic. People have lost their lives due to the virus and the lack of counter measures in place. Given the increasing caseload and…

In this work, we developed a deep learning model-based approach to forecast the spreading trend of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States. We implemented the designed model using the United States to confirm cases and state demographic data and…

The problem of dealing with misreported data is very common in a wide range of contexts for different reasons. The current situation caused by the Covid-19 worldwide pandemic is a clear example, where the data provided by official sources…

Forecasting the evolution of contagion dynamics is still an open problem to which mechanistic models only offer a partial answer. To remain mathematically or computationally tractable, these models must rely on simplifying assumptions,…

Europe was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and Portugal was one of the most affected countries, having suffered three waves in the first twelve months. Approximately between Jan 19th and Feb 5th 2021 Portugal was the country in the world…

The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…

An analytical study of the disease COVID-19 in Colombia was carried out using mathematical models such as Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR), Logistic Regression (LR), and a machine learning method called Polynomial Regression…

When we face patients arriving to a hospital suffering from the effects of some illness, one of the main problems we can encounter is evaluating whether or not said patients are going to require intensive care in the near future. This…

The COVID-19 pandemic provided many modeling challenges to investigate the evolution of an epidemic process over areal units. A suitable encompassing model must describe the spatio-temporal variations of the disease infection rate of…

We introduce a new probabilistic model to estimate the real spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus along regions or countries. Our model simulates the behavior of each individual in a population according to a probabilistic model through an…

In this work we evaluate the applicability of an ensemble of population models and machine learning models to predict the near future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular use case in Spain. We rely solely in open and public…

In this article, we develop a data assimilation procedure to predict the evolution of epidemics with data uncertainty, with application to the Covid-19 pandemic. We construct a vademecum of solutions by solving the SIR epidemic model for a…

In this paper, we propose a deep learning model to forecast the range of increase in COVID-19 infected cases in future days and we present a novel method to compute equidimensional representations of multivariate time series and…

Mechanistic models fit to streaming surveillance data are critical to understanding the transmission dynamics of an outbreak as it unfolds in real-time. However, transmission model parameter estimation can be imprecise, and sometimes even…

Computational models for the simulation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic evolution would be extremely useful to support authorities in designing healthcare policies and lockdown measures to…

Objective: COVID-19 has spread worldwide and made a huge influence across the world. Modeling the infectious spread situation of COVID-19 is essential to understand the current condition and to formulate intervention measurements.…