相关论文: Extended Coopetitive Soft Gating Ensemble

Meteorological ensembles are a collection of scenarios for future weather delivered by a meteorological center. Such ensembles form the main source of valuable information for probabilistic forecasting which aims at producing a predictive…

Ensemble prediction systems are an invaluable tool for weather forecasting. Practically, ensemble predictions are obtained by running several perturbations of the deterministic control forecast. However, ensemble prediction is associated…

Accurately representing surface weather at the sub-kilometer scale is crucial for optimal decision-making in a wide range of applications. This motivates the use of statistical techniques to provide accurate and calibrated probabilistic…

Two-stage ensemble-based forecasting methods have been studied extensively in the wind power forecasting field. However, deep learning-based wind power forecasting studies have not investigated two aspects. In the first stage, different…

In weather forecasting, nonhomogeneous regression is used to statistically postprocess forecast ensembles in order to obtain calibrated predictive distributions. For wind speed forecasts, the regression model is given by a truncated normal…

Recent studies concerning the point electricity price forecasting have shown evidence that the hourly German Intraday Continuous Market is weak-form efficient. Therefore, we take a novel, advanced approach to the problem. A probabilistic…

Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…

This paper addresses the critical challenge of improving predictions of climate extreme events, specifically heat waves, using machine learning methods. Our work is framed as a classification problem in which we try to predict whether…

The predictive advantage of combining several different predictive models is widely accepted. Particularly in time series forecasting problems, this combination is often dynamic to cope with potential non-stationary sources of variation…

Generation and load balance is required in the economic scheduling of generating units in the smart grid. Variable energy generations, particularly from wind and solar energy resources, are witnessing a rapid boost, and, it is anticipated…

Convex regression is a promising area for bridging statistical estimation and deterministic convex optimization. New piecewise linear convex regression methods are fast and scalable, but can have instability when used to approximate…

The short-term reliability evaluation techniques provide a rational approach for risk-informed decision making during power system operation. The existing reliability assessment techniques involve large computational burden and therefore…

Nowadays, weather prediction is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to produce an ensemble of forecasts. Despite of large improvements over the last few decades, they still tend to exhibit systematic bias and dispersion…

In our contemporary era, meteorological weather forecasts increasingly incorporate ensemble predictions of visibility - a parameter of great importance in aviation, maritime navigation, and air quality assessment, with direct implications…

Ensemble forecast based on physics-informed models is one of the most widely used forecast algorithms for complex turbulent systems. A major difficulty in such a method is the model error that is ubiquitous in practice. Data-driven machine…

Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm warnings, ship routing and aviation. We present a statistical…

Weather forecasts are typically given in the form of forecast ensembles obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with varying initial conditions and physics parameterizations. Such ensemble predictions tend to be…

Statistical postprocessing techniques are commonly used to improve the skill of ensembles of numerical weather forecasts. This paper considers spatial extensions of the well-established nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR)…

Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems…

Motion behaviour is driven by several factors -- goals, presence and actions of neighbouring agents, social relations, physical and social norms, the environment with its variable characteristics, and further. Most factors are not directly…