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We develop an approach for Bayesian learning of spatiotemporal dynamical mechanistic models. Such learning consists of statistical emulation of the mechanistic system that can efficiently interpolate the output of the system from arbitrary…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-11 Sudipto Banerjee , Xiang Chen , Ian Frankenburg , Daniel Zhou

Optimising black-box functions is important in many disciplines, such as tuning machine learning models, robotics, finance and mining exploration. Bayesian optimisation is a state-of-the-art technique for the global optimisation of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2015-03-05 John-Alexander M. Assael , Ziyu Wang , Bobak Shahriari , Nando de Freitas

High-precision measurements require optimal setups and analysis tools to achieve continuous improvements. Systematic corrections need to be modeled with high accuracy and known uncertainty to reconstruct underlying physical phenomena. To…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2022-05-31 Max Lamparth , Mattis Bestehorn , Bastian Märkisch

Finite element model updating utilizing frequency response functions as inputs is an important procedure in structural analysis, design and control. This paper presents a highly efficient framework that is built upon Gaussian process…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2020-08-26 Kai Zhou , Jiong Tang

This paper proposes a new formulation of functional Gaussian Process regression in manifolds, based on an Empirical Bayes approach, in the spatiotemporal random field context. We apply the machinery of tight Gaussian measures in separable…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-03-24 MD Ruiz-Medina , AE Madrid , A Torres-Signes , JM Angulo

The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-01-03 David C. Woods , Antony M. Overstall , Maria Adamou , Timothy W. Waite

Optical scatterometry is a method to measure the size and shape of periodic micro- or nanostructures on surfaces. For this purpose the geometry parameters of the structures are obtained by reproducing experimental measurement results…

计算物理 · 物理学 2020-06-24 Philipp-Immanuel Schneider , Martin Hammerschmidt , Lin Zschiedrich , Sven Burger

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-12-18 Roger Frigola , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön , Carl E. Rasmussen

Information regarding precipitate shapes is critical for estimating material parameters. Hence, we considered estimating a region of material parameter space in which a computational model produces precipitates having shapes similar to…

The optimal selection of experimental conditions is essential to maximizing the value of data for inference and prediction, particularly in situations where experiments are time-consuming and expensive to conduct. We propose a general…

机器学习 · 统计学 2012-12-04 Xun Huan , Youssef M. Marzouk

Learning controller parameters from closed-loop data has been shown to improve closed-loop performance. Bayesian optimization, a widely used black-box and sample-efficient learning method, constructs a probabilistic surrogate of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-15 Sebastian Hirt , Valentinus Suwanto , Hendrik Alsmeier , Maik Pfefferkorn , Rolf Findeisen

Learning dynamical models from data is not only fundamental but also holds great promise for advancing principle discovery, time-series prediction, and controller design. Among various approaches, Gaussian Process State-Space Models…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-20 Tengjie Zheng , Haipeng Chen , Lin Cheng , Shengping Gong , Xu Huang

\noindent Hyper-parameter selection is a central practical problem in modern machine learning, governing regularization strength, model capacity, and robustness choices. Cross-validation is often computationally prohibitive at scale, while…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-24 Hedibert Lopes , Nick Polson , Vadim Sokolov

Biological systems commonly exhibit complex spatiotemporal patterns whose underlying generative mechanisms pose a significant analytical challenge. Traditional approaches to spatiodynamic inference rely on dimensionality reduction through…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2025-08-01 Jun Won Park , Kangyu Zhao , Sanket Rane

We propose an active learning method for discovering low-dimensional structure in high-dimensional Gaussian process (GP) tasks. Such problems are increasingly frequent and important, but have hitherto presented severe practical…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-10-28 Roman Garnett , Michael A. Osborne , Philipp Hennig

We propose a nonparametric procedure to achieve fast inference in generative graphical models when the number of latent states is very large. The approach is based on iterative latent variable preselection, where we alternate between…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-10-06 Jacquelyn A. Shelton , Jan Gasthaus , Zhenwen Dai , Joerg Luecke , Arthur Gretton

Estimation of spatially-varying parameters for computationally expensive forward models governed by partial differential equations is addressed. A novel multiscale Bayesian inference approach is introduced based on deep probabilistic…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-03-02 Yingzhi Xia , Nicholas Zabaras

We introduce Bayesian optimization, a technique developed for optimizing time-consuming engineering simulations and for fitting machine learning models on large datasets. Bayesian optimization guides the choice of experiments during…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-11-22 Peter I. Frazier , Jialei Wang

We propose a novel actor-critic, model-free reinforcement learning algorithm which employs a Bayesian method of parameter space exploration to solve environments. A Gaussian process is used to learn the expected return of a policy given the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-03-03 Ashish Rao , Bidipta Sarkar , Tejas Narayanan

We develop a Bayesian graphical modeling framework for functional data for correlated multivariate random variables observed over a continuous domain. Our method leads to graphical Markov models for functional data which allows the graphs…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-12 Lin Zhang , Veera Baladandayuthapani , Quinton Neville , Karina Quevedo , Jeffrey S. Morris