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Estimating optimal dynamic policies from offline data is a fundamental problem in dynamic decision making. In the context of causal inference, the problem is known as estimating the optimal dynamic treatment regime. Even though there exists…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-12-15 Qizhao Chen , Morgane Austern , Vasilis Syrgkanis

There is a fast-growing literature on estimating optimal treatment regimes based on randomized trials or observational studies under a key identifying condition of no unmeasured confounding. Because confounding by unmeasured factors cannot…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-12 Yifan Cui , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

The sequential treatment decisions made by physicians to treat chronic diseases are formalized in the statistical literature as dynamic treatment regimes. To date, methods for dynamic treatment regimes have been developed under the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-22 Janie Coulombe , Erica E. M. Moodie , Susan M. Shortreed , Christel Renoux

We consider the efficient estimation of total causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding using conditional instrumental sets. Specifically, we consider the two-stage least squares estimator in the setting of a linear…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-11-07 Leonard Henckel , Martin Buttenschön , Marloes H. Maathuis

Confounding bias, missing data, and selection bias are three common obstacles to valid causal inference in the data sciences. Covariate adjustment is the most pervasive technique for recovering casual effects from confounding bias. In this…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-09-17 Mojdeh Saadati , Jin Tian

Variable selection for optimal treatment regime in a clinical trial or an observational study is getting more attention. Most existing variable selection techniques focused on selecting variables that are important for prediction, therefore…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-05-22 Ailin Fan , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song

Faced with data-driven policies, individuals will manipulate their features to obtain favorable decisions. While earlier works cast these manipulations as undesirable gaming, recent works have adopted a more nuanced causal framing in which…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-22 Tom Yan , Shantanu Gupta , Zachary Lipton

Confounder selection, namely choosing a set of covariates to control for confounding between a treatment and an outcome, is arguably the most important step in the design of an observational study. Previous methods, such as Pearl's…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-24 F. Richard Guo , Qingyuan Zhao

We study efficient estimation of an interventional mean associated with a point exposure treatment under a causal graphical model represented by a directed acyclic graph without hidden variables. Under such a model, it may happen that a…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-12-06 F. Richard Guo , Emilija Perković , Andrea Rotnitzky

Mixed-effect models are very popular for analyzing data with a hierarchical structure, e.g. repeated observations within subjects in a longitudinal design, patients nested within centers in a multicenter design. However, recently, due to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-05-09 Abhik Ghosh , Magne Thoresen

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a challenging problem, especially with high dimensional data and in the presence of unobserved variables. The available data-driven methods for tackling the problem either provide an…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jiji Zhang , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

Estimating treatment effects from observational data is challenging due to two main reasons: (a) hidden confounding, and (b) covariate mismatch (control and treatment groups not having identical distributions). Long lines of works exist…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-30 Praharsh Nanavati , Ranjitha Prasad , Karthikeyan Shanmugam

Complete randomization allows for consistent estimation of the average treatment effect based on the difference in means of the outcomes without strong modeling assumptions on the outcome-generating process. Appropriate use of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-03 Anqi Zhao , Peng Ding

This paper studies covariate adjusted estimation of the average treatment effect in stratified experiments. We work in a general framework that includes matched tuples designs, coarse stratification, and complete randomization as special…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-07-23 Max Cytrynbaum

Traditional covariate selection methods for causal inference focus on achieving unbiasedness and asymptotic efficiency. In many practical scenarios, researchers must estimate causal effects from observational data with limited sample sizes…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-06-17 Nadja Rutsch , Sara Magliacane , Stéphanie van der Pas

Many structural econometric models include latent variables on whose probability distributions one may wish to place minimal restrictions. Leading examples in panel data models are individual-specific variables sometimes treated as "fixed…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-01-15 Andrew Chesher , Adam M. Rosen , Yuanqi Zhang

Finding coarse-grained, low-dimensional descriptions is an important task in the analysis of complex, stochastic models of gene regulatory networks. This task involves (a) identifying observables that best describe the state of these…

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng

In the estimation of causal effects, one common method for removing the influence of confounders is to adjust the variables that satisfy the back-door criterion. However, it is not always possible to uniquely determine sets of such…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-06 Atsushi Noda , Takashi Isozaki