相关论文: Digital Herd Immunity and COVID-19

In this paper we conduct a simulation study of the spread of an epidemic like COVID-19 with temporary immunity on finite spatial and non-spatial network models. In particular, we assume that an epidemic spreads stochastically on a…

In the context of the recent COVID-19 outbreak, quarantine has been used to "flatten the curve" and slow the spread of the disease. In this paper, we show that this is not the only benefit of quarantine for the mitigation of an SIR epidemic…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increasing interest in the modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. The pandemic has made a significant impact on the way we behave and interact in our daily life. The past year has witnessed…

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…

In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…

In limiting the rapid spread of highly infectious diseases like Covid-19 means to immediately identify individuals who had been in contact with a newly diagnosed infected person have proven to be important. Such potential victims can go…

A mathematical model of COVID-19 with minimal compartments is developed. The model is simple enough to fit data on confirmed cases, estimate the hidden infection figure and incorporate the effect of vaccination. With the effect of the new…

Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of…

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…

The death toll for Covid-19 may be reduced by dividing the population into two classes, the vulnerable and the fit, with different lockdown regimes. Instead of one reproduction number there now are four parameters. These make it possible to…

COVID-19 will be a continuous threat to human population despite having a few vaccines at hand until we reach the endemic state through natural herd immunity and total immunization through universal vaccination. However, the vaccine acts as…

The success of a vaccination program is crucially dependent on its adoption by a critical fraction of the population, as the resulting herd immunity prevents future outbreaks of an epidemic. However, the effectiveness of a campaign can…

Most countries are suffering severely from the ongoing covid-19 pandemic despite various levels of preventive measures. A common question is if and when a country or region will reach herd immunity $h$. The classical herd immunity level…

Contact tracing via digital tracking applications installed on mobile phones is an important tool for controlling epidemic spreading. Its effectivity can be quantified by modifying the standard methodology for analyzing percolation and…

The novel COVID-19 pandemic is a current, major global health threat. Up till now, there is no fully approved pharmacological treatment or a vaccine. In this study, simple mathematical models were employed to examine the dynamics of…

A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…

Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human…

We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing…

SIRS epidemic models assume that individual immunity (from infection and vaccination) wanes in one big leap, from complete immunity to complete susceptibility. For many diseases immunity on the contrary wanes gradually, something that's…

Recently, [8] has proposed that heterogeneity of infectiousness (and susceptibility) across individuals in infectious diseases, plays a major role in affecting the Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT). Such heterogeneity has been observed in…