相关论文: Scenario analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventi…

The implementation of governmental Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) has been the primary means of controlling the spread of the COVID-19 disease. The intended effect of these NPIs has been to reduce mobility. A strong reduction in…

Although modeling studies are focused on the control of SIR-based systems describing epidemic data sets (particularly the COVID-19), few of them present a formal dynamic characterization in terms of equilibrium sets and stability. Such…

To curb the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, many countries relied on nation-wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, resulting in substantial socio-economic impacts. Potentially, subnational implementations might have…

The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while…

A model-based signal processing framework is proposed for pandemic trend forecasting and control, by using non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) at regional and country levels worldwide. The control objective is to prescribe quantifiable…

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 6.4 million registered deaths to date and has had a profound impact on economic activity. Here, we study the interaction of transmission, mortality, and the economy during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic from…

Zhang et al. (2020) used linear regression to quantify the effect of lockdowns on the number of cases of COVID-19. We show using differential equations from the susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model and with an example from…

The special epistemic characteristics of the COVID-19, such as the long incubation period and the infection through asymptomatic cases, put severe challenge to the containment of its outbreak. By the end of March 2020, China has…

Several models have been developed to predict how the COVID-19 pandemic spreads, and how it could be contained with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing restrictions and school and business closures. This paper…

This paper considers the problem of designing non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies, such as masking and social distancing, to slow the spread of a viral epidemic. We formulate the problem of jointly minimizing the infection…

In this paper, a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model has been used to track the evolution of the spread of the COVID-19 virus in four countries of interest. In particular, the epidemic model, that depends on some basic characteristics,…

We measure the effect of different public health regulations to the spread of COVID-19, based on a SEIRA model -- a SEIR model including asymptomatic transmissions. The cumulative confirmed cases and death show nonlinear positive…

We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for quantitative modeling and analysis to understand real-world disease dynamics. In particular, post hoc analyses using compartmental models offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of…

In this study, we have formulated and analyzed a non-linear compartmental model (SEIR) for the dynamics of COVID-19 with reference to immigration from urban to rural population in Indian scenario. We have captured the effect of the…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are crucial for controlling pandemics, but existing research often overlooks the heterogeneity of individual behavior, which can lead to inaccurate evaluations of the effectiveness of strategies. In…

The effective control of infectious diseases relies on accurate assessment of the impact of interventions, which is often hindered by the complex dynamics of the spread of disease. A Beta-Dirichlet switching state-space transmission model…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmingly demonstrated the need to accurately evaluate the effects of implementing new or altering existing nonpharmaceutical interventions. Since these interventions applied at the societal level…

Mathematical models of infectious diseases exhibit robust dynamics such as stable endemic or a disease-free equilibrium, or convergence of the solutions to periodic epidemic waves. The present work shows that the accuracy of such dynamics…