相关论文: Posterior contraction rates for non-parametric sta…

We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation of incompletely observed multivariate diffusion processes. Observations are assumed to be discrete in time, noisy and incomplete. We assume the drift and diffusion coefficient depend on…

The linear fractional stable motion generalizes two prominent classes of stochastic processes, namely stable L\'evy processes, and fractional Brownian motion. For this reason it may be regarded as a basic building block for continuous time…

Bayesian analysis of state-space models includes computing the posterior distribution of the system's parameters as well as filtering, smoothing, and predicting the system's latent states. When the latent states wander around $\mathbb{R}^n$…

In this paper we focus on a type of inverse problem in which the data is expressed as an unknown function of the sought and unknown model function (or its discretised representation as a model parameter vector). In particular, we deal with…

The nonequilibrium stationary state of an irreversible spherical model is investigated on hypercubic lattices. The model is defined by Langevin equations similar to the reversible case, but with asymmetric transition rates. In spite of…

We study the nonparametric Nadaraya-Watson estimator of the drift function for ergodic stochastic processes driven by fractional Brownian motion of Hurst parameter H > 1/2. The estimator is based on the discretely observed stochastic…

The remarkable generalization performance of large-scale models has been challenging the conventional wisdom of the statistical learning theory. Although recent theoretical studies have shed light on this behavior in linear models and…

Motivated by questions in lossy data compression and by theoretical considerations, we examine the problem of estimating the rate-distortion function of an unknown (not necessarily discrete-valued) source from empirical data. Our focus is…

A methodology is developed, based on nonparametric Bayesian dictionary learning, for joint space-time wind field data extrapolation and estimation of related statistics by relying on limited/incomplete measurements. Specifically, utilizing…

In this paper, we study a class of non-parametric density estimators under Bayesian settings. The estimators are piecewise constant functions on binary partitions. We analyze the concentration rate of the posterior distribution under a…

Stochastic parabolic equations are widely used to model many random phenomena in natural sciences, such as the temperature distribution in a noisy medium, the dynamics of a chemical reaction in a noisy environment, or the evolution of the…

This paper presents an adaptive Kalman filter for a linear dynamic system perturbed by an additive disturbance. The objective is to estimate both of the state and the unknown disturbance concurrently, while learning the disturbance as a…

In the Bayesian approach, the a priori knowledge about the input of a mathematical model is described via a probability measure. The joint distribution of the unknown input and the data is then conditioned, using Bayes' formula, giving rise…

Nonlinear model predictive control has become a popular approach to deal with highly nonlinear and unsteady state systems, the performance of which can however deteriorate due to unaccounted uncertainties. Model predictive control is…

We study the problem of parametric estimation for continuously observed stochastic processes driven by additive small fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index 0<H<1/2 and 1/2<H<1. Under some assumptions on the drift coefficient, we…

This paper studies the distributed state estimation problem for a class of discrete-time stochastic systems with nonlinear uncertain dynamics over time-varying topologies of sensor networks. An extended state vector consisting of the…

In a general class of Bayesian nonparametric models, we prove that the posterior distribution can be asymptotically approximated by a Gaussian process. Our results apply to nonparametric exponential family that contains both Gaussian and…

We consider a stochastic differential equation involving standard and fractional Brownian motion with unknown drift parameter to be estimated. We investigate the standard maximum likelihood estimate of the drift parameter, two non-standard…

We present a theory-first framework that interprets inference-time adaptation in large language models (LLMs) as online Bayesian state estimation. Rather than modeling rapid adaptation as implicit optimization or meta-learning, we formulate…

In this paper, we analyze the finite sample complexity of stochastic system identification using modern tools from machine learning and statistics. An unknown discrete-time linear system evolves over time under Gaussian noise without…