相关论文: NISE Estimation of an Economic Model of Crime

Crime remains one of the significant problems that countries are grappling with globally. With shrinking economies and increasing poverty, crime has been on the rise in many countries. In this paper, we propose a system of non-linear…

Recent advances in computing power and the potential to make more realistic assumptions due to increased flexibility have led to the increased prevalence of simulation models in economics. While models of this class, and particularly…

This paper develops a unified estimation framework, the Maximum Ideal Likelihood Estimation (MILE), for general parametric models with latent variables. Unlike traditional approaches relying on the marginal likelihood of the observed data,…

For a single equation in a system of linear equations, estimation by instrumental variables is the standard approach. In practice, however, it is often difficult to find valid instruments. This paper proposes a maximum likelihood method…

Crime is an economically important activity, sometimes called the industry of crime. It may represent a mechanism of wealth distribution but also a social and economic charge because of the cost of the law enforcement system. Sometimes it…

Economic evaluations from individual-level data are an important component of the process of technology appraisal, with a view to informing resource allocation decisions. A critical problem in these analyses is that both effectiveness and…

The object of this paper is to develop a statistical approach to criminal linkage analysis that discovers and groups crime events that share a common offender and prioritizes suspects for further investigation. Bayes factors are used to…

Nested simulation is a natural approach to tackle nested estimation problems in operations research and financial engineering. The outer-level simulation generates outer scenarios and the inner-level simulations are run in each outer…

Simulation models, in particular agent-based models, are gaining popularity in economics. The considerable flexibility they offer, as well as their capacity to reproduce a variety of empirically observed behaviours of complex systems, give…

In this work, the spread of crime dynamics in the US is analyzed from a mathematical scope, an epidemiological model is established, including five compartments: Susceptible (S), Latent 1 (E1), Latent 2 (E2), Incarcerated (I), and Recovered…

Currently, criminals profile (CP) is obtained from investigators or forensic psychologists interpretation, linking crime scene characteristics and an offenders behavior to his or her characteristics and psychological profile. This paper…

Neural posterior estimation (NPE) and neural likelihood estimation (NLE) are machine learning approaches that provide accurate posterior, and likelihood, approximations in complex modeling scenarios, and in situations where conducting…

Estimating the size of hidden populations using Multiple Systems Estimation (MSE) is a critical task in quantitative sociology; however, practical application is often hindered by imperfect administrative data and computational constraints.…

In the econometrics of financial time series, it is customary to take some parametric model for the data, and then estimate the parameters from historical data. This approach suffers from several problems. Firstly, how is estimation error…

Minimizing the Mean Squared Error (MSE) is a key objective in machine learning and is commonly used for imputing missing values. While this approach provides accurate point estimates, it introduces systematic biases in downstream analyses.…

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Crime prediction is a widely studied research problem due to its importance in ensuring safety of city dwellers. Starting from statistical and classical machine learning based crime prediction methods, in recent years researchers have…

We advocate for a practical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach towards designing loss functions for regression and forecasting, as an alternative to the typical approach of direct empirical risk minimization on a specific target…

This article presents methods for estimating extreme probabilities, beyond the range of the observations. These methods are model-free and applicable to almost any sample size. They are grounded in order statistics theory and have a wide…

Estimating linear regression using least squares and reporting robust standard errors is very common in financial economics, and indeed, much of the social sciences and elsewhere. For thick tailed predictors under heteroskedasticity this…