相关论文: Long-term Spatial Modeling for Characteristics of …

The modeling of spatio-temporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency of heatwaves in a changing climate. Here, we study annual temperature maxima over Southern Europe using a century-spanning…

Extreme temperature events have traditionally been detected assuming a unimodal distribution of temperature data. We found that surface temperature data can be described more accurately with a multimodal rather than a unimodal distribution.…

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot…

Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…

Heat waves merit careful study because they inflict severe economic and societal damage. We use an intuitive, informal working definition of a heat wave-a persistent event in the tail of the temperature distribution-to motivate an…

Because of the impact of extreme heat waves and heat domes on society and biodiversity, their study is a key challenge. We specifically study long-lasting extreme heat waves, which are among the most important for climate impacts. Physics…

Heat wave (HW) events are becoming more frequent, and they have important consequences because of the negative effects they can have not only on the human population in health terms, but also on biodiversity and agriculture. This motivated…

We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…

There is continuing interest in the investigation of change in temperature over space and time. We offer a set of tools to illuminate such change temporally, at desired temporal resolution, and spatially, according to region of interest,…

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Research on heat waves (periods of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity) is a newly emerging research topic within the field of climate change research with high relevance for the whole of society. In this…

We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1931 to 2022. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily…

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…

We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…

Urbanization of an area is known to increase the temperature of the surrounding area. This phenomenon -- a so-called urban heat island (UHI) -- occurs at a local level over a period of time and has lasting impacts for historical data…

Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. Forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves is a primary…

Heat waves are projected to increase in frequency and severity with global warming. Improved warning systems would help reduce the associated loss of lives, wildfires, power disruptions, and reduction in crop yields. In this work, we…

Weather and climate extremes such as heatwaves are crucial climate hazards to people and ecosystems worldwide. In any region, climate change may alter their characteristics in complex ways so that rigorous and holistic quantification of the…

This study investigates how different spatiotemporal temperature models affect the estimation of heat-related mortality in Lazio, Italy (2008--2022). First, we compare three methods to reconstruct daily maximum temperature at the…