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Many proposals for the identification of causal effects require an instrumental variable that satisfies strong, untestable unconfoundedness and exclusion restriction assumptions. In this paper, we show how one can potentially identify…

Who should we prioritize for treatment when causal effects cannot be estimated? In practice, organizations often rely on predictive proxies: ads are targeted using purchase probabilities, and retention incentives are allocated using…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-15 Carlos Fernández-Loría , Jorge Loría

The development of high-throughput sequencing and targeted therapies has led to the emergence of personalized medicine: a patient's molecular profile or the presence of a specific biomarker of drug response will correspond to a treatment…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-05-27 Jonas Béal , Aurélien Latouche

Partial identification approaches are a flexible and robust alternative to standard point-identification approaches in general instrumental variable models. However, this flexibility comes at the cost of a ``curse of cardinality'': the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-06-30 Florian Gunsilius

Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-01 Fredrik D. Johansson , Uri Shalit , Nathan Kallus , David Sontag

In many causal inference applications, only one or a few units (or clusters of units) are treated. An important challenge in such settings is that standard inference methods relying on asymptotic theory may be unreliable, even with large…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-22 Luis Alvarez , Bruno Ferman , Kaspar Wüthrich

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

Causal mediation analysis has historically been limited in two important ways: (i) a focus has traditionally been placed on binary treatments and static interventions, and (ii) direct and indirect effect decompositions have been pursued…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-13 Nima S. Hejazi , Kara E. Rudolph , Mark J. van der Laan , Iván Díaz

A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-21 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

We address the common yet often-overlooked selection bias in interventional studies, where subjects are selectively enrolled into experiments. For instance, participants in a drug trial are usually patients of the relevant disease; A/B…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-11 Haoyue Dai , Ignavier Ng , Jianle Sun , Zeyu Tang , Gongxu Luo , Xinshuai Dong , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

A key to causal inference with observational data is achieving balance in predictive features associated with each treatment type. Recent literature has explored representation learning to achieve this goal. In this work, we discuss the…

To maximize clinical benefit, clinicians routinely tailor treatment to the individual characteristics of each patient, where individualized treatment rules are needed and are of significant research interest to statisticians. In the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-23 Trinetri Ghosh , Yanyuan Ma , Rui Song , Pingshou Zhong

We study the problem of a decision maker who must provide the best possible treatment recommendation based on an experiment. The desirability of the outcome distribution resulting from the policy recommendation is measured through a…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-04-06 Anders Bredahl Kock , David Preinerstorfer , Bezirgen Veliyev

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding between exposure and outcome. An IV must affect the outcome exclusively through the exposure and be unconfounded with the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-18 Jordan Penn , Lee M. Gunderson , Gecia Bravo-Hermsdorff , Ricardo Silva , David S. Watson

Causal classification models are adopted across a variety of operational business processes to predict the effect of a treatment on a categorical business outcome of interest depending on the process instance characteristics. This allows…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-06 Diego Olaya , Wouter Verbeke , Jente Van Belle , Marie-Anne Guerry

Most causal inference methods consider counterfactual variables under interventions that set the treatment deterministically. With continuous or multi-valued treatments or exposures, such counterfactuals may be of little practical interest…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-07 Iván Díaz , Nicholas Williams , Katherine L. Hoffman , Edward J. Schenck

We develop new semiparametric methods for estimating treatment effects. We focus on settings where the outcome distributions may be thick tailed, where treatment effects may be small, where sample sizes are large and where assignment is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-24 Susan Athey , Peter J. Bickel , Aiyou Chen , Guido W. Imbens , Michael Pollmann

In this paper, we study causal inference when the treatment variable is an aggregation of multiple sub-treatment variables. Researchers often report marginal causal effects for the aggregated treatment, implicitly assuming that the target…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-08 Carolina Caetano , Gregorio Caetano , Brantly Callaway , Derek Dyal

In this paper we study approaches for dealing with treatment when developing a clinical prediction model. Analogous to the estimand framework recently proposed by the European Medicines Agency for clinical trials, we propose a…

Causal mediation analysis is used to evaluate direct and indirect causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of interest through an intermediate variable or a mediator.It is difficult to identify the direct and indirect causal effects…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-01-14 Wei Li , Chunchen Liu , Zhi Geng , John Murray