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We advocate for a new statistical principle that combines the most desirable aspects of both parameter inference and density estimation. This leads us to the predictively oriented (PrO) posterior, which expresses uncertainty as a…

We consider variable selection problem in linear regression using mixture of $g$-priors. A number of mixtures are proposed in the literature which work well, especially when the number of regressors $p$ is fixed. In this paper, we propose a…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-04-16 Minerva Mukhopadhyay

In applications of Bayesian procedures, once a class of priors has been chosen, it may be tempting to fix the prior's hyperparameters from the data, in an empirical Bayes (EB) fashion, usually by their maximum marginal likelihood estimates…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-04-14 Stefano Rizzelli , Judith Rousseau , Sonia Petrone

Binary regression models represent a popular model-based approach for binary classification. In the Bayesian framework, computational challenges in the form of the posterior distribution motivate still-ongoing fruitful research. Here, we…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-09-06 Augusto Fasano , Niccolò Anceschi , Beatrice Franzolini , Giovanni Rebaudo

As for other latent-variable problems, exact Bayesian analysis is typically not practicable for mixture problems and approximate methods have been developed. Variational Bayes tends to produce approximate posterior distributions for…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-02-24 Nils Lid Hjort , Mike Titterington

The Bayesian expected power (BEP) has become increasingly popular in sample size determination and assessment of the probability of success (POS) for a future trial. The BEP takes into consideration the uncertainty around the parameters…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-01 Fang Liu

This paper deals with Bayesian inference of a mixture of Gaussian distributions. A novel formulation of the mixture model is introduced, which includes the prior constraint that each Gaussian component is always assigned a minimal number of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-05-21 Colin J. Stoneking

The ongoing replication crisis in science has increased interest in the methodology of replication studies. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis approach using power priors: The likelihood of the original study's data is raised to the power…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-28 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Constraints are a natural choice for prior information in Bayesian inference. In various applications, the parameters of interest lie on the boundary of the constraint set. In this paper, we use a method that implicitly defines a…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-09-27 Jasper Marijn Everink , Yiqiu Dong , Martin Skovgaard Andersen

The ongoing unprecedented exponential explosion of available computing power, has radically transformed the methods of statistical inference. What used to be a small minority of statisticians advocating for the use of priors and a strict…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2009-11-07 Carlos C. Rodriguez

We consider a novel paradigm for Bayesian testing of hypotheses and Bayesian model comparison. Our alternative to the traditional construction of posterior probabilities that a given hypothesis is true or that the data originates from a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-01-01 Kaniav Kamary , Kerrie Mengersen , Christian P. Robert , Judith Rousseau

When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-05 Ryan Martin

Although discrete mixture modeling has formed the backbone of the literature on Bayesian density estimation, there are some well known disadvantages. We propose an alternative class of priors based on random nonlinear functions of a uniform…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-03-19 Suprateek Kundu , David B. Dunson

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-05-05 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

Many popular Bayesian nonparametric priors can be characterized in terms of exchangeable species sampling sequences. However, in some applications, exchangeability may not be appropriate. We introduce a {novel and probabilistically coherent…

In real-world Bayesian inference applications, prior assumptions regarding the parameters of interest may be unrepresentative of their actual values for a given dataset. In particular, if the likelihood is concentrated far out in the wings…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-11-01 Xi Chen , Mike Hobson , Saptarshi Das , Paul Gelderblom

We propose a class of structured diffusion models, in which the prior distribution is chosen as a mixture of Gaussians, rather than a standard Gaussian distribution. The specific mixed Gaussian distribution, as prior, can be chosen to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-28 Nanshan Jia , Tingyu Zhu , Haoyu Liu , Zeyu Zheng

Bayesian binary regression is a prosperous area of research due to the computational challenges encountered by currently available methods either for high-dimensional settings or large datasets, or both. In the present work, we focus on the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-09-06 Augusto Fasano , Niccolò Anceschi , Beatrice Franzolini , Giovanni Rebaudo

Bayes factors for composite hypotheses have difficulty in encoding vague prior knowledge, as improper priors cannot be used and objective priors may be subjectively unreasonable. To address these issues I revisit the posterior Bayes factor,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-29 Frank Dudbridge

Power priors are used for incorporating historical data in Bayesian analyses by taking the likelihood of the historical data raised to the power $\alpha$ as the prior distribution for the model parameters. The power parameter $\alpha$ is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-27 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers