相关论文: Precursors of the El Ni\~no Phenomenon: A climate …
Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining…
Complex networks have been used intensively to investigate the flow and dynamics of many natural systems including the climate system. Here, we develop a percolation based measure, the order parameter, to study and quantify climate…
El Ni\~{n}o is a typical example of a coupled atmosphere--ocean phenomenon, but it is unclear whether it can be described quantitatively by a correlation between relevant climate events. To provide clarity on this issue, we developed a…
El Nino is probably the most influential climate phenomenon on interannual time scales. It affects the global climate system and is associated with natural disasters and serious consequences in many aspects of human life. However, the…
Complex network theory provides a powerful toolbox for studying the structure of statistical interrelationships between multiple time series in various scientific disciplines. In this work, we apply the recently proposed climate network…
We propose a scenario that explains many of the Pacific Ocean climate phenomena that are called El Nino/ La Nina. This scenario requires an event, which we call a Super-Nino Event. It dominates other phenomena when it occurs. A template of…
Although anomalous episodical warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific, dubbed El Ni\~no by Peruvian fishermen, has major (and occasionally devastating) impacts around the globe, robust forecasting is still limited to about six months…
El Ni\~no episodes are part of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the strongest driver of interannual climate variability, and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Previously we…
This paper proposes a novel framework for enhancing the prediction accuracy and lead time of El Ni\~no events, crucial for mitigating their global climatic, economic, and societal impacts. Traditional prediction models often rely on oceanic…
The temperatures in different zones in the world do not show significant changes due to El-Nino except when measured in a restricted area in the Pacific Ocean. We find, in contrast, that the dynamics of a climate network based on the same…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently we have developed a network approach, which allows…
Functional networks are powerful tools to study statistical interdependency structures in spatially extended or multivariable systems. They have been used to get insights into the dynamics of complex systems in various areas of science. In…
El Ni\~no exhibits distinct Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types which are commonly, but not always consistently, distinguished from each other by different signatures in equatorial climate variability. Here, we propose an…
We construct and analyze a climate network which represents the interdependent structure of the climate in different geographical zones and find that the network responds in a unique way to El-Ni\~{n}o events. Analyzing the dynamics of the…
On average once every four years, the Tropical Pacific warms considerably during events called El Ni\~no, leading to weather disruptions over many regions on Earth. Recent machine-learning approaches to El Ni\~no prediction, in particular…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently, we have developed two approaches…
Internal modes of climate variability, such as El Ni\~no and the North Atlantic Oscillation, can have strong influences upon distant weather patterns, effects that are referred to as "teleconnections". The extent to which anthropogenic…
Recent work has provided ample evidence that global climate dynamics at time-scales between multiple weeks and several years can be severely affected by the episodic occurrence of both, internal (climatic) and external (non-climatic)…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding. Recently, we have developed several statistical approaches for…
The 2014-2015 "Monster"/"Super" El Ni\~no failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Ni\~no, El Ni\~no Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this…