相关论文: Machine learning for total cloud cover prediction

Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Recently,…

Numerical weather forecasts can exhibit systematic errors due to simplifying model assumptions and computational approximations. Statistical postprocessing is a statistical approach to correcting such biases. A statistical postprocessing…

We propose a neural network approach to produce probabilistic weather forecasts from a deterministic numerical weather prediction. Our approach is applied to operational surface temperature outputs from the Global Deterministic Prediction…

Clouds classification is a great challenge in meteorological research. The different types of clouds, currently known and present in our skies, can produce radioactive effects that impact on the variation of atmospheric conditions, with the…

Machine learning (ML) offers a computationally efficient approach for generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate projections, but deterministic ML methods often smooth fine-scale structures and underestimate extremes. While…

The classification of weather data involves categorizing meteorological phenomena into classes, thereby facilitating nuanced analyses and precise predictions for various sectors such as agriculture, aviation, and disaster management. This…

Most ground-based observatories are equipped with wide-angle all-sky cameras to monitor the night sky conditions. Such camera systems can be used to provide early warning of incoming clouds that can pose a danger to the telescope equipment…

Machine learning (ML) has often been applied to space weather (SW) problems in recent years. SW originates from solar perturbations and is comprised of the resulting complex variations they cause within the systems between the Sun and…

The parameterization of moist convection contributes to uncertainty in climate modeling and numerical weather prediction. Machine learning (ML) can be used to learn new parameterizations directly from high-resolution model output, but it…

Forecast combinations have flourished remarkably in the forecasting community and, in recent years, have become part of the mainstream of forecasting research and activities. Combining multiple forecasts produced from single (target) series…

As in many other areas of engineering and applied science, Machine Learning (ML) is having a profound impact in the domain of Weather and Climate Prediction. A very recent development in this area has been the emergence of fully data-driven…

State-of-the-art weather forecasts usually rely on ensemble prediction systems, accounting for the different sources of uncertainty. As ensembles are typically uncalibrated, they should get statistically postprocessed. Several multivariate…

In next-generation communications and networks, machine learning (ML) models are expected to deliver not only accurate predictions but also well-calibrated confidence scores that reflect the true likelihood of correct decisions. This paper…

Seasonal climate predictions support planning and risk management by offering early information of the most likely-to-occur climate conditions in the coming months, and associated uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts enable this by simulating…

We propose a machine-learning-based methodology for in-situ weather forecast postprocessing that is both spatially coherent and multivariate. Compared to previous work, our Flow MAtching Postprocessing (FMAP) better represents the…

The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each…

Predictive skill of complex models is often not uniform in model-state space; in weather forecasting models, for example, the skill of the model can be greater in populated regions of interest than in "remote" regions of the globe. Given a…

This paper presents a high-fidelity evaluation framework for machine learning (ML)-based classification of cyber-attacks and physical faults using electromagnetic transient simulations with digital substation emulation at 4.8 kHz. Twelve ML…

Machine learning (ML) is often viewed as a black-box regression technique that is unable to provide considerable scientific insight. ML models are universal function approximators and - if used correctly - can provide scientific information…

A forecasting ensemble consisting of a diverse range of estimators for both local and global univariate forecasting, in particular MQ-CNN,DeepAR, Prophet, NPTS, ARIMA and ETS, can be used to make forecasts for a variety of problems. This…