相关论文: Machine learning for total cloud cover prediction

Ensemble forecasts of weather and climate are subject to systematic biases in the ensemble mean and variance, leading to inaccurate estimates of the forecast mean and variance. To address these biases, ensemble forecasts are post-processed…

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural…

Over the last three decades, ensemble forecasts have become an integral part of forecasting the weather. They provide users with more complete information than single forecasts as they permit to estimate the probability of weather events by…

Recently, all major weather centres issue ensemble forecasts which even covering the same domain differ both in the ensemble size and spatial resolution. These two parameters highly determine both the forecast skill of the prediction and…

Automatic resource scaling is one advantage of Cloud systems. Cloud systems are able to scale the number of physical machines depending on user requests. Therefore, accurate request prediction brings a great improvement in Cloud systems'…

Currently all major meteorological centres generate ensemble forecasts using their operational ensemble prediction systems; however, it is a general problem that the spread of the ensemble is too small, resulting in underdispersive…

Improving the skill of medium-range (3-8 day) severe weather prediction is crucial for mitigating societal impacts. This study introduces a novel approach leveraging decoder-only transformer networks to post-process AI-based weather…

With large quantities of data typically available nowadays, forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series, known as Global Forecasting Models (GFM), are regularly outperforming traditional univariate forecasting models that…

Nowadays, weather prediction is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to produce an ensemble of forecasts. Despite of large improvements over the last few decades, they still tend to exhibit systematic bias and dispersion…

In decentralized learning networks, predictions from many participants are combined to generate a network inference. While many studies have demonstrated performance benefits of combining multiple model predictions, existing strategies…

Optical turbulence, driven by fluctuations of the atmospheric refractive index, poses a significant challenge to ground-based optical systems, as it distorts the propagation of light. This degradation affects both astronomical observations…

Traditionally, weather predictions are performed with the help of large complex models of physics, which utilize different atmospheric conditions over a long period of time. These conditions are often unstable because of perturbations of…

Time series forecasting has long been dominated by advances in model architecture, with recent progress driven by deep learning and hybrid statistical techniques. However, as forecasting models approach diminishing returns in accuracy, a…

To explore the issue of performing a non-interactive numerical weather forecast with an operational global model in assist of astronomical observing, we use the Xu-Randall cloud scheme and the Trinquet-Vernin AXP seeing model with the…

Deep learning models have achieved remarkable progress in precipitation prediction. However, they still face significant challenges in accurately capturing spatial details of radar images, particularly in regions of high precipitation…

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models that integrate coupled physical equations forward in time are the traditional tools for simulating atmospheric processes and forecasting weather. With recent advancements in deep learning, AI-based…

Obtaining accurate probabilistic forecasts is an operational challenge in many applications, such as energy management, climate forecasting, supply chain planning, and resource allocation. Many of these applications present a natural…

This research investigates the use of machine learning methods to forecast students' academic performance in a school setting. Students' data with behavioral, academic, and demographic details were used in implementations with standard…

We develop multiple Deep Learning (DL) models that advance the state-of-the-art predictions of the global auroral particle precipitation. We use observations from low Earth orbiting spacecraft of the electron energy flux to develop a model…

Ensemble prediction systems are an invaluable tool for weather forecasting. Practically, ensemble predictions are obtained by running several perturbations of the deterministic control forecast. However, ensemble prediction is associated…