相关论文: Quantifying the Trendiness of Trends

We present a sample path dependent measure of causal influence between two time series. The proposed measure is a random variable whose expected sum is the directed information. A realization of the proposed measure may be used to identify…

We present a nonparametric framework to model a short sequence of probability distributions that vary both due to underlying effects of sequential progression and confounding noise. To distinguish between these two types of variation and…

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes…

Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…

For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…

Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to deemphasize…

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce…

The study of human mobility patterns is a crucially important research field for its impact on several socio-economic aspects and, in particular, the measure of regularity patters of human mobility can provide a across-the-board view of…

The coronavirus pandemic is impacting our lives at unprecedented speed and scale - including how we eat and work, what we worry about, how much we move, and our ability to earn. Google Trends can be used as a proxy for what people are…

The importance of the ability of predict trends in social media has been growing rapidly in the past few years with the growing dominance of social media in our everyday's life. Whereas many works focus on the detection of anomalies in…

Many research questions in public health and medicine concern sustained interventions in populations defined by substantive priorities. Existing methods to answer such questions typically require a measured covariate set sufficient to…

In several countries, including Italy, a prominent approach to population health surveillance involves conducting repeated cross-sectional surveys at short intervals of time. These surveys gather information on the health status of…

We measure the public concern during the outbreak of COVID-19 disease using three data sources from Google Trends (YouTube, Google News, and Google Search). Our findings are three-fold. First, the public concern in Italy is found to be a…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has progressed with varying degrees of intensity in individual countries, suggesting it is important to analyse factors that vary between them. We study measures of `population-weighted density', which capture…

The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, it became evident that the effectiveness of applying intervention measures is significantly influenced by societal acceptance, which, in turn, is affected by the processes of opinion formation. This article…

The COVID-19 pandemic considerably affects public health systems around the world. The lack of knowledge about the virus, the extension of this phenomenon, and the speed of the evolution of the infection are all factors that highlight the…

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful tools to monitor the evolution of the pandemic, inform the public, and assist governments in decision making. Our goal is to develop a globally applicable…

This paper proposes a novel empirical strategy to measure cultural justifications of domestic violence within households, with direct implications for demographic behavior and gender inequality. Leveraging survey data on individual…

The concepts of variability and uncertainty, both epistemic and alleatory, came from experience and coexist with different connotations. Therefore this article attempts to express their relation by analytic means firstly setting sights on…