相关论文: A Bayesian Application in Judicial Decisions

In this paper, we present a decision support system based on belief functions and the pignistic transformation. The system is an integration of an evidential system for belief function propagation and a valuation-based system for Bayesian…

Robustness of decision rules to shifts in the data-generating process is crucial to the successful deployment of decision-making systems. Such shifts can be viewed as interventions on a causal graph, which capture (possibly hypothetical)…

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) increasingly influences decisions in critical societal sectors, understanding and establishing causality becomes essential for evaluating the fairness of automated systems. This article explores the…

Scoring models support decision-making in financial institutions. Their estimation and evaluation are based on the data of previously accepted applicants with known repayment behavior. This creates sampling bias: the available labeled data…

This research introduces LegalScore, a specialized index for assessing how generative artificial intelligence models perform in a selected range of career exams that require a legal background in Brazil. The index evaluates fourteen…

I propose a normative updating rule, extended Bayesianism, for the incorporation of probabilistic information arising from the process of becoming more aware. Extended Bayesianism generalizes standard Bayesian updating to allow the…

Algorithmic fairness is typically studied from the perspective of predictions. Instead, here we investigate fairness from the perspective of recourse actions suggested to individuals to remedy an unfavourable classification. We propose two…

Bayesian observer and actor models have provided normative explanations for many behavioral phenomena in perception, sensorimotor control, and other areas of cognitive science and neuroscience. They attribute behavioral variability and…

The purpose of this paper is twofold. On one side, we present a general framework for Bayesian optimization and we compare it with some related fields in active learning and Bayesian numerical analysis. On the other hand, Bayesian…

A novel information-theoretic approach is proposed to assess the global practical identifiability of Bayesian statistical models. Based on the concept of conditional mutual information, an estimate of information gained for each model…

We propose a Bayesian model selection approach that allows medical practitioners to select among predictor variables while taking their respective costs into account. Medical procedures almost always incur costs in time and/or money. These…

An imprecise Bayesian nonparametric approach to system reliability with multiple types of components is developed. This allows modelling partial or imperfect prior knowledge on component failure distributions in a flexible way through…

Raking is widely used in categorical data modeling and survey practice but faced with methodological and computational challenges. We develop a Bayesian paradigm for raking by incorporating the marginal constraints as a prior distribution…

We propose an interdisciplinary framework that combines Bayesian predictive inference, a well-established tool in Machine Learning, with Formal Methods rooted in the computer science community. Bayesian predictive inference allows for…

To design Bayesian studies, criteria for the operating characteristics of posterior analyses - such as power and the type I error rate - are often assessed by estimating sampling distributions of posterior probabilities via simulation. In…

We consider the problem of estimating a variable number of parameters with a dynamic nature. A familiar example is finding the position of moving targets using sensor array observations. The problem is challenging in cases where either the…

In multiple domains such as malware detection, automated driving systems, or fraud detection, classification algorithms are susceptible to being attacked by malicious agents willing to perturb the value of instance covariates to pursue…

Probabilistic machine learning models are often insufficient to help with decisions on interventions because those models find correlations - not causal relationships. If observational data is only available and experimentation are…

We propose a Bayesian approach for both medical inquiry and disease inference, the two major phases in differential diagnosis. Unlike previous work that simulates data from given probabilities and uses ML algorithms on them, we directly use…

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…