相关论文: Non-stationarity in Esbjerg sea-level returnlevels…

The rapid expansion of the French offshore wind sector requires a critical reassessment of structural durability in the face of evolving marine conditions driven by climate change. Traditional design methodologies, which rely on the…

Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…

The modeling of spatio-temporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency of heatwaves in a changing climate. Here, we study annual temperature maxima over Southern Europe using a century-spanning…

Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…

Reliable estimates of sea level return levels are crucial for coastal flooding risk assessments and for coastal flood defence design. We describe a novel method for estimating extreme sea levels that is the first to capture seasonality,…

A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived…

Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…

Heat waves resulting from prolonged extreme temperatures pose a significant risk to human health globally. Given the limitations of observations of extreme temperature, climate models are often used to characterize extreme temperature…

Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…

We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…

Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…

Satellite altimeter observations retrieved since 1993 show that the global mean sea level is rising at an unprecedented rate (3.4mm/year). With almost three decades of observations, we can now investigate the contributions of anthropogenic…

Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…

Max-stable processes are natural models for spatial extremes because they provide suitable asymptotic approximations to the distribution of maxima of random fields. In the recent past, several parametric families of stationary max-stable…

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events since the beginning of the 21st century has led to the development of new methods to attribute extreme events to anthropogenic climate change. The way in which the extreme event is defined…

The increasing frequency of extreme temperature events, such as daily maximum temperature ($T_x$) records, underscores the need for robust tools to understand their drivers and predict their occurrence. Previous studies have identified…

Projecting sea-level change in various climate-change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice mass change, which requires high computational…

Studies agree on a significant global mean sea level rise in the 20th century and its recent 21st century acceleration in the satellite record. At regional scale, the evolution of sea level probability distributions is often assumed to be…

We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…

Estimating spatial extremes from sparse observational networks produces uncertain return level maps, but dense output from physics-based simulation models is often available as a complementary data source. We develop a two-stage frequentist…